[lbo-talk] ABC/WaPo Poll: The Late Republican Surge Is Here

mike larkin mike_larkin2001 at yahoo.com
Sat Nov 4 22:23:02 PST 2006


http://www.redstate.com/stories/archived/abc_wapo_gop_within_6_on_generic_ballot

Via TKS, we learn that the generic ballot has closed to within 6 among likely voters, 10 among registered voters (which means that GOPers are sailing past the likely voter screen, a good indicator):

The ABC Washington Post poll generic ballot question, two weeks ago. Compare/contrast with two weeks ago:

Dem Rep Other Neither Will not No cand. cand. (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 11/4/06 LV 51 45 1 1 * 2 11/4/06 RV 53 43 1 1 * 3 Dem Rep Other Neither Will not No cand. cand. (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 10/22/06 LV 55 41 0 1 * 3 10/22/06 RV 54 41 * 1 * 3

In 2002, the only indication we had that Republicans would have a good night came from a NYT/CBS poll released on Monday showing the GOP pulling ahead. Unlike most Presidential elections, midterm elections tend to break and clarify at the very end.

If this is true, it would be consistent with the recent tightening we have seen in PA-SEN and MT-SEN, which means the GOP base could be coming home.

Bonus tidbit: what did the final poll before the '94 avalanche say? Dems +5%.

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