[lbo-talk] You think the GOP is sure to lose big in November? Theyaren't.

[Wojtek Sokolowski]

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1541237,00.html

 

The polls keep suggesting that Republicans could be in for a historic
drubbing. And their usual advantage-competence on national security-is
constantly being challenged by new revelations about bungling in Iraq. But
top Republican officials maintain an eerie, Zen-like calm. They insist that
the prospects for their congressional candidates in November's midterms have
never been as bad as advertised and are getting better by the day. Those are
party operatives and political savants whose job it is to anticipate
trouble. But much of the time they seem so placid, you wonder whether they
know something.... 

 

[WS:] I am no Republican party operative, but I pretty much feel the same
way.  And one does not need to have any inside knowledge to figure this out
-getting over the wishful thinking and keeping the eyes open will suffice.
The US is a deeply petit bourgeois society - where the nauseous mixture of
small town insularity, distrust of outsiders, public displays of piety and
sanctimonious self-righteousness and jingoistic populism rule the day and
dominate public discourse.  In such political and social climate, any
candidate that is perceived to be even slightly left-of-the center is simply
DOA, especially in a majoritarian political system.  This can be painfully
demonstrated by Nixon's victory in 1972 - who despite widely spread
unpopularity of his policies (escalation of the Vietnam War, heave handed
treatment of protesters, Kent State etc.) won by a landslide over the
"leftish" McGovern.  It is thus unlikely that the growing - albeit by no
means widely spread- unpopularity of Bush policies will cause much damage to
Republican prospects this November.

 

More importantly, however, there is no agency in sight at the moment that
would bring about a policy change.  The implementation of left-of the center
political regimes are almost never brought by popular demand; they have been
historically imposed from above by "enlightened" elites.  As HL Mencken
aptly observed, people (except perhaps libertarians) are generally unwilling
to extend the rights and privileges they have to other social groups.  They
may demand jobs, social security, health insurance etc. for themselves but
not for those "damn foreigners," immigrants, or any other "outsiders."
Therefore, populist demands have always a right wing bend: they serve the
needs of one social group at the exclusion and oftentimes expense of other
groups.  The push to extend rights and privileges to all or most social
groups in a nation usually comes from the top, oftentimes against popular
opposition (cf. the Civil Rights movement in the US).  The reasons why
elites opt for left-of-centre policies vary from internalized value systems,
to group think and following solutions implemented elsewhere and perceived
as "new trends," to Machiavellian calculations to subdue internal conflicts
or mobilize support.  

 

At the moment, the leadership of any conceivable sort is deeply convinced
that the US-style capitalism works, and there is no alternative to it.
Democrats are thus in the impossible position of either following that trope
- which is quintessentially conservative and already "owned" by Republicans
- or otherwise be seen as "out of touch with common sense and American
values" (which GOP propaganda can easily accomplish.)  So basically the
choice they have is either becoming Republican light, or dropping dead.
This is why Republican party operatives seem so placid - as no threat to the
Republican rule can be seen on the horizon.

 

Wojtek

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