[lbo-talk] Bush and gas prices: trend shifting?

[Chuck]

Miles Jackson wrote:
> 
> I use Doug's Bush approval-gas price association as an example of 
> bivariate regression in my methods course.  It's an uncanny, strong 
> relationship.  However, as gas prices fall, the trend doesn't seem to be 
> following Doug's regression line.  Bush's ratings are back down to the 
> low 30s, when the regression model predicts a significantly higher 
> approval rating.  Residual error, or meaningful shift in the trend?
> Miles

I've never had a class on statistics, but I would ask if your methods 
take into account Congressional sex scandals and a crazed North Korean 
dictator?

;-)

Chuck