[lbo-talk] Bush and gas prices: trend shifting?

Miles Jackson cqmv at pdx.edu
Tue Oct 10 08:57:03 PDT 2006


I use Doug's Bush approval-gas price association as an example of bivariate regression in my methods course. It's an uncanny, strong relationship. However, as gas prices fall, the trend doesn't seem to be following Doug's regression line. Bush's ratings are back down to the low 30s, when the regression model predicts a significantly higher approval rating. Residual error, or meaningful shift in the trend?

Miles



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