China fears consequences of North Korea collapse
Sat Oct 14, 2006
BEIJING (Reuters) - A huge flow of refugees, a stronger U.S. presence in the region and economic pressures that could impact the stability of its government -- those are the worst fears for China in the event its neighbor, North Korea, collapsed.
The conclusion China has come to as it weighs its response to North Korea's announcement last week that it conducted a nuclear test is that while nuclear is bad, collapse is worse.
"China will have to compromise in terms of tolerating a nuclear power on its doorstep -- its primary aim is to retain regime stability in North Korea," said Alexander Neill, head of the Asia Programme at Britain's Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies.
China condemned North Korea, its old Communist ally, after the nuclear test, but since then pushed for softer language in a U.N. resolution imposing sanctions, fearful of pushing the impoverished and isolated North into collapse.
"The potential flood of refugees from North Korea is one of the biggest concerns of the Chinese government," said Wang Qinghong, a fellow of the Pacific Forum CSIS, a Hawaii-based think-tank.
Hardest hit would be China's northeastern provinces, its old industrial base still transitioning out of decades of state planning.
"The local governments already have a big burden there to take care of laid-off workers," said Wang.
International aid organisations would no doubt be lining up to help.
But for a Chinese leadership that sees assistance as interference and fears movements like the "color revolutions" that toppled dictatorships in post-Soviet Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan, a heavy aid presence could seem more like an added challenge than a help.
Former North Korean soldiers could also be among those leaving across their 1,400-km (850-mile) border -- conventional weapons in hand -- contributing to criminal gangs and black market networks.
BALANCE OF POWER
Some say given China's 1.3 billion people, any refugee movement would be a drop in the bucket; others point out that North Koreans might just as easily move across the Demilitarised Zone into the South.
But with 2 million ethnic Koreans already living in China, a wave of more could add to uncertainty over territorial controversies.
"The Chinese have been making historical claims and reasserting their control over Changbaishan, so they seem to be worried about something," said Peter Beck of the International Crisis Group, referring to Korea's most revered mountain.
North Korea is also an important buffer state for China against South Korea -- where 25,000 U.S. troops are stationed -- as well as U.S.-allied Japan and Taiwan.
Collapse could mean a change in the region's power balance that, to China, would be unacceptable.
"The alternatives (to regime stability) would mean U.S. encroachment into the peninsula," said Neill.
The potential stresses would come at a time China's Communist rulers are trying to maintain their own grip on power in the face of rapid social and economic change. A five-yearly Party Congress key to establishing a smooth leadership succession is expected in late 2007 and the 2008 Beijing Olympics are on the horizon.
But the government's legitimacy is linked to its ability to deliver economic growth, a task that would be all the more challenging in the event North Korea implodes.
"Harmonious society" has been the catch-phrase of choice for Chinese President Hu Jintao, who has likely wagered that the consequences for China of a North Korean collapse are far greater than the kudos it might win for taking a tougher stance.
"It is very difficult to chose for China, especially with domestic issues to think about," said Wang.
"On the one hand, the Chinese government really wants to punish this kind of test, but at the same time, we don't want the regime to collapse, or there will be big social and political problems for China."
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.