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DOBBS: There's rising tension tonight between the United States and Iran. The Bush administration accusing Iran of helping insurgents kill our troops in Iraq. And at the same time, Iran is aggressively pushing ahead with its nuclear weapons program.
Joining me now, three leading authorities on Iran, Iraq and Iran's military ambitions. Fawaz Gerges, professor of Middle East and international studies at Sarah Lawrence College. And Ervand Abrahamian is a history professor at Baruch College, and we thank you for being here. General David Grange, one of the country's most distinguished military commanders, and it's always good to have you with us, Dave.
And Fawaz, let me begin with you. The idea that this country's headed toward war with Iran was given something of a boost today by the State Department, in making very clear charges against them. What's your reaction?
FAWAZ GERGES, SARAH LAWRENCE COLLEGE: Well, as you said, it is an intensified rhetoric on the part of the Bush administration. Not just rhetoric -- the president has a new order to capture and kill Iranian agents in Iraq. Naval build-up in the Gulf. Threats, open threats by the president.
I think -- I would not go as far as saying that we're going to war. I think the Bush administration appears to have decided to exert political and military pressure on Iran, and to basically prevent it from damaging its campaign in Iraq.
DOBBS: Ervand?
ERVAND ABRAHAMIAN, BARUCH COLLEGE: I would go further. I think the decision was made some time ago in Washington that the Iranian nuclear program has to be destroyed. I think that commitment has been made to Israel. And if once you have that premise, then the question is, how do you stop the Iranian nuclear program?
One is the diplomatic route, which the administration's excluded. So the other route is basically a military route, which is -- of course will lead to a wider war, which is the real danger.
DOBBS: Professor Abrahamian says that he sees a clear path to conflict. General Grange, your view?
BRIG. GEN. DAVID GRANGE (RET), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: I believe it's going to be inevitable, Lou. I think that, one, just the nuclear issue that you discussed, that that decision has been made. In fact, if it goes that far, there's no other choice, really. The other two issues are the support of terrorism and, of course, the influence in Iraq, which are causing American G.I.s to die and not to -- the ability to accomplish our mission. So those three things are driving it.
DOBBS: If there are, in point of fact -- if the United States has solid evidence that Iran has been killing American troops and working against U.S. interests for a year and a half, why in the world has the United States military not taken action in that year and a half period of time, General Grange?
GRANGE: Well, action has already been taken. And some action has been ongoing for some time. You don't hear a lot about it. It's just been cranked up a bit because the Iranian influence, with both Republican Guard and intelligence services personnel, equivalent of, say, their special forces, has been involved.
It's more than spying. It's more than spying, which every nation does. These are people directly involved with supporting insurgents and militias.
DOBBS: Professor Gerges, you have given us a more hopeful perspective here. How do you react?
GERGES: Lou, one point must be made very clear. The Sunni-led insurgency is responsible for the death of almost 99 percent of American and coalition forces in Iraq. And the Sunni-led insurgency is as opposed to Iran and the Shias as it is opposed to basically the American military presence.
Of course, Iran has been supporting armed Shiite militias, which have been killing Sunnis, thousands of Sunnis. And in this particular sense, Iran has contributed to the intensification of the sectarian strife.
But I think it's very misleading. Truly, empirically, to say that Iran has contributed significantly the death of the American soldiers. It's the Sunni-led insurgency, not Iran.
DOBBS: Professor Abrahamian?
ABRAHAMIAN: Yes, I think actually, so far, ironically that Iran and the United States have been on parallel paths. Both have been supporting -- SCIRI and Dawa, who have formed the main Baghdad government. So their support has gone basically to them. So I think the idea that somehow Iranians are supporting insurgents, Sunnis against -- killing Americans, it could be possible. But it's very unlikely. I would say it's in the realm of absurdity.
GERGES: I just come from the Middle East. I cannot tell you the transformation that has taken place in the Sunni-dominated Arab world, anti-Shiite and anti-Iranian sentiment is becoming deeply hardened in the region. I mean, there is a major internal, intensive struggle in the Middle East...
DOBBS: Forgive me...
GERGES: Yes.
DOBBS: ... forgive me for second, you said what has become hardened?
GERGES: The anti-Shiite and anti-Iranian sentiments in the Sunni Arab-dominated world. And to put -- it's amazing. In the Arab world, the thing is Iran...
DOBBS: And, of course, Sunnis dominate the Muslim world.
GERGES: Ninety percent. Ninety percent of Muslims are Sunnis.
And, in fact, most -- I mean, a majority of Sunnis believe that the United States and Iran are basically allied together against the Sunni, the Sunni minority in Iraq. And this is the irony, the paradox of the situation in Iraq.
DOBBS: Professor Gerges, Professor Abrahamian, General Grange raise serious questions that -- and we already have a very high bar to act on any intelligence, given the history of U.S. intelligence here. Does this give you pause, as you look at what is developing there in Iran and Iraq, General Grange?
GRANGE: Lou, you know, first of all, the Iranian influence in Iraq does not only support Shia death squads or militia or whatever, it also supports Sunni insurgents. In other words, their common enemy is the Americans. They still fight each other. If two out of three Americans die from IEDs, most of the IEDs are triggered or initiated by devices made in Iran, then their influencing the death of the American soldiers regardless of who pulls the trigger.
ABRAHAMIAN: Lou, sorry. I would take issue of that. Before we believe that, we need evidence. I think it's -- the realm is so fantastic...
GRANGE: There is evidence.
ABRAHAMIAN: All right, then I would like to see it. I mean, it's as absurd as to say that American administration was behind 9/11. It just is not possible in the Middle East context to think that Iranian officials would be providing lethal materials to Sunni, Baathist fanatics who kill other Shias. It's just not possible.
GERGES: The truth is there is major, major civil war taking place in Iraq between the Sunni-led insurgency or resistance and the Shiites. It makes sense that Iran supports the Shiite militias who are battling the Sunnis.
But it doesn't make sense. It's against common sense. I can understand, for example, if Iranian arms are sold on the black market. I can understand if Syria supports some of these Sunni resistant groups. But truly Iran, it's against its interests to do so.
DOBBS: And we're going to have to conclude there.
General Grange, you get the last word, if you may quickly.
GRANGE: Well, you know, the bottom line is, Iran is influencing the outcome of Iraq. And that should be stopped just like the nuclear proliferation piece should be stopped, just like support of Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Hamas or whoever else. I mean, this is a challenge to this nation and it has to be taken on somehow.
ABRAHAMIAN: Could I...
DOBBS: I lied. You're not going to get the last word, General Grange.
Professor Abrahamian wants the last word here.
ABRAHAMIAN: ... that the logic of what is being said is, if the United States attacks Iran, what is Iran going to do? They're not going to sit back. They will, as the general says, they have assets in Iraq, also they have it in Afghanistan. We're actually heading for a 30 to 100-year war if there are air strikes.
GERGES: May I take the final word?
DOBBS: OK, You get the final word. I'm now out of the bidding.
GERGES: I think the administration is basically trying to exert both political and military pressure to deter Iran, and basically convince the Iranian leadership not to intervene in the Iraqi political situation, and send a message about its nuclear portfolio as well.
DOBBS: Professor Gerges, Professor Abrahamian, thank you very much.
GRANGE: I agree with that.
DOBBS: General Grange, thank you. We appreciate it.
And that is the last word. -- Yoshie <http://montages.blogspot.com/> <http://mrzine.org> <http://monthlyreview.org/>