[lbo-talk] Nawaf Obaid on Saudi Spare Capacity

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Tue Jan 30 16:03:20 PST 2007


On Jan 30, 2007, at 6:08 PM, Yoshie Furuhashi wrote:


> Nawaf Obaid says, "[b]y June 2007, Saudi Arabia is expected to have
> enough spare capacity to offset all Iranian exports" and "[b]y 2009 /
> 2010 the goal is to satisfy global demand during a potential
> disruption from Iran and one of the three other major OPEC exporters
> (Venezuela, Nigeria or Iraq)" ("Saudi Arabia's Strategic Energy
> Initiative: Safeguarding Against Supply Disruptions," Center for
> Strategic and International Studies, 9 November 2006,
> <http://www.csis.org/media/csis/events/
> 061109_omsg_presentation1.pdf>).
> That's worse news to me than anything else on the oil front. :-|

Given how tight supplies have been, unless there's a serious downturn in the U.S. and/or China, that's probably not enough of a margin of safety. So don't get too depressed.

Doug



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