· Military solution back in favour as Rice loses out · President 'not prepared to leave conflict unresolved'
Ewen MacAskill in Washington and Julian Borger Monday July 16, 2007 The Guardian
The balance in the internal White House debate over Iran has shifted back in favour of military action before President George Bush leaves office in 18 months, the Guardian has learned.
The shift follows an internal review involving the White House, the Pentagon and the state department over the last month. Although the Bush administration is in deep trouble over Iraq, it remains focused on Iran. A well-placed source in Washington said: "Bush is not going to leave office with Iran still in limbo."
The White House claims that Iran, whose influence in the Middle East has increased significantly over the last six years, is intent on building a nuclear weapon and is arming insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The vice-president, Dick Cheney, has long favoured upping the threat of military action against Iran. He is being resisted by the secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, and the defence secretary, Robert Gates.
Last year Mr Bush came down in favour of Ms Rice, who along with Britain, France and Germany has been putting a diplomatic squeeze on Iran. But at a meeting of the White House, Pentagon and state department last month, Mr Cheney expressed frustration at the lack of progress and Mr Bush sided with him. "The balance has tilted. There is cause for concern," the source said this week.
Nick Burns, the undersecretary of state responsible for Iran and a career diplomat who is one of the main advocates of negotiation, told the meeting it was likely that diplomatic manoeuvring would still be continuing in January 2009. That assessment went down badly with Mr Cheney and Mr Bush.
"Cheney has limited capital left, but if he wanted to use all his capital on this one issue, he could still have an impact," said Patrick Cronin, the director of studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The Washington source said Mr Bush and Mr Cheney did not trust any potential successors in the White House, Republican or Democratic, to deal with Iran decisively. They are also reluctant for Israel to carry out any strikes because the US would get the blame in the region anyway.
"The red line is not in Iran. The red line is in Israel. If Israel is adamant it will attack, the US will have to take decisive action," Mr Cronin said. "The choices are: tell Israel no, let Israel do the job, or do the job yourself."
Almost half of the US's 277 warships are stationed close to Iran, including two aircraft carrier groups. The aircraft carrier USS Enterprise left Virginia last week for the Gulf. A Pentagon spokesman said it was to replace the USS Nimitz and there would be no overlap that would mean three carriers in Gulf at the same time.
No decision on military action is expected until next year. In the meantime, the state department will continue to pursue the diplomatic route.
Sporadic talks are under way between the EU foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, and Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, on the possibility of a freeze in Iran's uranium enrichment programme. Tehran has so far refused to contemplate a freeze, but has provisionally agreed to another round of talks at the end of the month.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, has said that there are signs of Iran slowing down work on the enrichment plant it is building in Natanz. Negotiations took place in Tehran last week between Iranian officials and the IAEA, which is seeking a full accounting of Iran's nuclear activities before Tehran disclosed its enrichment programme in 2003. The agency's deputy director general, Olli Heinonen, said two days of talks had produced "good results" and would continue.
At the UN, the US, Britain and France are trying to secure agreement from other security council members for a new round of sanctions against Iran. The US is pushing for economic sanctions that would include a freeze on the international dealings of another Iranian bank and a mega-engineering firm owned by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Russia and China are resisting tougher measures.
<http://www.juancole.com/2007/07/are-we-already-at-war-have-us-enabled.html> Sunday, July 15, 2007
Are we Already at War? Have US-enabled Kurds killed 200 Iranian Troops?
I got the below by anonymous email regarding a German news program last month. Am passing it on not because I buy it or its details but because there is at the least an issue in the Kurdish terrorist groups that are operating from US-occupied Iraq against Iraq's neighbors. The US is not able to stop the PKK from operating against an ally, Turkey, so I don't think it could stop the Iranian Kurdish terrorists, PEJAK, from operating against Iran. But it is also probably true that there are elements in the US military, in the intelligence services, and in the Washington power elite that are connected to PEJAK and are either happy about its activities or subtly enabling them.
Since the US Senate has in its wisdom laid the groundwork for a war on Iran [LINK: <http://www.lewrockwell.com/floyd/floyd79.html>] on the extremely thin grounds of an unbalanced and gullible NYT story, it is worth pondering the degree to which we are being spun once again by shadowy forces whose salaries we are paying!
"Transcript of TV program on German ARD television," [LINK: <http://www.wdr.de/tv/monitor/beitragsuebersicht.phtml?sid=165>] The Monitor, no. 564, June 21, 2007:
Sertan (a PJAK terrorist): "Three months ago, by using radio-controlled mines (IEDs) we killed 13 to 14 Iranian soldiers". Kurdish terrorists hide in the U.S. protected areas of North-Eastern Iraq. From there, they send fighters over the border into Iran and attack Iranians. In the past two years, they have killed over 200 Iranians."
See the transcript of the program in German. . . . [LINK: <http://www.wdr.de/tv/monitor/beitrag.phtml?bid=890&sid=165>] [*Update: A perceptive reader kindly translated the transcript into English at the Comments; I am appending it to the main message below.]*
*** NOTE: You can use Google to translate these German Web Pages into English. [LINK: <http://www.google.ca/language_tools?hl=en>]
[Then there is this from other press sources]:
Pejak enjoying western support (PressTv, Iran, July 11, 2007):
Head of Pejak (PJAK) terrorist group says he has good relations with the U.S. and German governments and they know everything about the group. Abdul Rahman Haji-Ahmadi who lives in Cologne, Germany told German ARD television [LINK: <http://tinyurl.com/ytfrtl>] network that he directs Pejak from Germany [LINK: <http://tinyurl.com/287c4p>]. "Big powers help our military stations and American army generals completely overlook our activities", he added.
Haji-Ahmadi pointed out that some U.S. generals even visit Pejak's military camps and have good ties with Pejak. He noted that the presence of Pejak in Iraq is even useful for the U.S. because "if Pejak does not rule, Islam will rule". Haji-Ahmadi in a similar interview with the Kurdish newspaper Media [LINK: <http://www.presstv.ir/Detail.aspx?id=16137§ionid=351020101>] had acknowledged that some U.S. senators and generals had met with Pejak leaders in Iraq's Qandil region. . .
[Journalist Reese Erlich has also reported on all this for "Democracy Now" and "Mother Jones":]
* Report: U.S. sponsoring Kurdish guerilla attacks inside Iran [LINK: <http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=07/03/27/1356250>]
* Kurdish & American sources say the U.S. has been supporting guerrilla raids against Iran, channeling the money through organizations in Iraqi Kurdistan." [LINK: <http://www.alternet.org/story/50215/>]
---
A reader writes:
(ARD report on The Monitor translated as a public service to prevent other family tragedies)
Terrorism: How the Turkish Workers Party attracts recruits under the noses of the BND and Interior Police (Rough and Ready Translation)
Sonia Mikich: Recruiting for the war. How a young man from a nice family was led astray – and to the battle in far way Iran. Incidentally as a consequence , we asked ourselves who practices these terrorist attacks on Iran from the ostensibly peaceful Northern Iraq. There is a secret war there unnoticed by the world and tolerated by the Americans.
The clues led to Germany, to Cologne as Stephan Buchen and John Goetz found out. They met extremists who proselytize young people under the noses of our secret services, completely in the shadows. Langenfeld North Rhine- Westphalia
The K family has lived here for 34 years. The parents feel happy and safe in Germany. However the major conflicts in the Middle East have intruded into their everyday life. Their son Sertan has been missing for the last eight months.
Photographs from happy times. His mobile [phone] doesn't answer anymore. He was a student at the higher vocational school in Leverkusen-Opladen. Today Sertan is 21 years old. The parents haven't heard from their son for 8 months.
We found the son in north eastern Iraq, near the Iranian border, in one of the most dangerous crisis zones in the world. In this mountain zone he is learning the trade of the Guerrilla.
Sertan: We call the weapon Karnas. It is a sniper rifle for assassinations. I was specially trained for assassinations of great generals.
Sertan belongs to an organization called PJAK, the party of a New Life in Kurdistan. Unnoticed by the rest of the world a war is happening here. The young recruits push into Iran and carry out attacks. Sertan: Especially with explosives, with mines. The mines are prepared …. So that we can detonate them from a distance by radio. They are being developed. We have trained specialists Bomb Experts. Three months ago the friends attacked and killed 13-14 soldiers of the Iranian Army.
Your son a Terrorist. Ready to die for the Kurdish cause? The family learns form us where Sertan is. They are speechless.
Mother (translation) I feel very bad I want my son to come back. I am upset.
Sister of Sertan: He promised mother that he would stay here. He hasn't kept his promise.
Ideological indoctrination: We observe how Sertan and other recruits are made enthusiastic for the battle. The Commander preaches about the bullets of the guerrilla which will light up the darkness. He demands from the young men and women self-sacrifice, praises the picture of martyrs. Sertan the boy from Langenfeld takes copious notes. This is how he is brought on line so quickly. The high ideals of PJAK can be reached: Overthrow of the Iranian Government, Installation of democracy, and freedom for the Kurds in Iran
The Kurdish guerrillas control a small strip in the north of the US Occupied Iraq. They send fighters across the border from here. They are believed to have killed at least 200 people in the last two years in attacks.
PJAK a pseudonym, as the organization owes allegiance to Abdulla Ocalan the boss of the Kurdish Workers party PKK. It is proscribed in Europe and the US as a terrorist organization.
Food rations is all Sertan gets for his work. His rise to fighter started in NRW. He was recruited there by PKK members he told us. He spent three months in a PKK camp in Belgium. Eventually he landed here with two young Kurds of German nationality.
Sertan: More and more are coming from Germany. From Germany, from Norway, from Sweden we already had two or three new members. But especially from Germany and France
Formal Parade of the recruits in front of the Boss of PJAk
Address of Haji Ahmadi Boss of PJAK:
I am very happy that you are ready for this holy battle says Haji Ahmadi. The Kurds provide an example of what it means to fight to the last man. Haji Ahmadi sees great times coming for his organization. It receives protection from the highest levels. American generals in Iraq look not unfavorably on his activities. They have visited his camp and walked together with respect.
We have positive effects for the Americans. We have the whole mountain chain from Armenia and Azerbaijan under our control. If we weren't here then the Islamists would take over.
Reporter: You mean to say that essentially you are supported by the Americans.
Haji: 100%
Is that is why the flow of new fighters from Europe works so smoothly?
Haji: Many Kurdish youths and girls are joining the fight from Europe. Many go to Northern Kurdistan and also to turkey
Haji Ahmadi is always temporarily visiting his people in North Iraq. His main residence is Cologne NRW. He has a German passport he says. He makes contact from here with western politicians and intelligence services. Even the BND have visited him.
Haji Ahmadi: He was a young man and said he was from the BND. He asked the same questions you are asking. Reporter: But that means that the German authorities know what you are doing, who you are and what your objectives are.
Haji: They know exactly what I am doing I have been in Europe for 43 years mostly in Germany ……
BND and Interior Police confirmed that they know PJAK and are watching them. Are young people being recruited for the war against Iran in Germany? We asked Representative Hans Christian Stroeble a member of the parliamentary intelligence oversight committee. He suspects that severe consequences might befall the authorities.
Stroeble: If the suspicion exists of illegal activities and especially such extremely illegal activities as terrorist links to overseas or the recruiting of for a foreign power then the German Justice authorities are obliged to report and investigate the matter and see if enough evidence exists for charges.
So far no sign of action by the Federal authorities. Setan's family want their son back, but they are afraid that the PKK will do something to their son Seltan's father: The PKK told me shouldn't call the police. Sertan is well. We haven't called the police because we thought that could put our son's life in danger.
The German authorities offer no help. To get his son back they have to trust the PKK. So far without result.
Labels: Iran
posted by Juan Cole @ 7/15/2007 07:35:00 AM -- Yoshie