[lbo-talk] Populism or Neoliberalism? Turkey, Venezuela, Etc.

Yoshie Furuhashi critical.montages at gmail.com
Wed Jul 25 00:16:33 PDT 2007


In today's global capitalism, the range of economic choices (available outside the richest capitalist countries) that people have accepted seems to be between a populist economy like Iran's and Venezuela's and a neoliberal one like Brazil's and Turkey's* (Russia's falls into the middle between them), unless the country has a special relation with the USA of the sort that East Asian countries such as China have (export to the USA, profit, save, and lend a lot of saving to the USA so the cycle can continue, while undervaluing the currency).

Expropriating all the expropriators is not on the agenda even in the land of Socialism of the 21st Century,** and the way it's going, the Bolivarian Revolution won't nationalize the means of production as much as Iran's Islamic Revolution did.

It's clear that whatever choice people make, liberalism, populism, socialism, or any other system, the economy that results form it experiences difficulties specific to its type as well as brings benefits also specific to it. We have to, first of all, understand what they are, so we can clarify costs and benefits of alternatives.

What else is to be done today, given the range of choices that people are making? IMHO, it would make sense for leftists to figure out how to run a populist mixed economy as much in the interest of people as possible, until such time as people put socialism on the agenda, while always reminding people that there exists essential contradiction in a populist economy (as in any capitalist economy) that creates certain inevitable problems (that are specific to a populist economy, unlike those of either a liberal economy or a socialist economy).

* <http://www.ft.com/cms/s/89c76900-3947-11dc-ab48-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=e8477cc4-c820-11db-b0dc-000b5df10621,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F89c76900-3947-11dc-ab48-0000779fd2ac%2Cdwp_uuid%3De8477cc4-c820-11db-b0dc-000b5df10621.html>

Financial Times - July 23, 2007

LEX Turkish elections

The victory of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Sunday's parliamentary elections got a cheery welcome from Turkey's financial markets. With good reason.

The AKP has presided over impressive economic gains in Turkey since 2002. The economy has grown about 7 per cent a year on average, and the budget deficit has been reduced from nearly 15 per cent of gross domestic product to just 0.7 per cent of GDP last year. Backed by an IMF programme, inflation has fallen from more than 70 to less than 10 per cent. Meanwhile, the domestic stock market has quintupled in value. Even if serious economic concerns remain – the yawning current account deficit, for one – investors should be pleased that Turkey will remain under the same management.

The AKP is likely to use its strengthened electoral mandate – it won nearly 47 per cent of the vote – to pursue reform. Pension legislation will be revived and more big-ticket privatisations, including the country's highways, are on the cards.

Investors may also be encouraged that the AKP does not have the two-thirds majority necessary to change the constitution, although it could perhaps garner it with the help of independent members of parliament. It may again choose to put forward Abdullah Gul for the presidency, the candidate who caused the military so much disquiet, or may choose to build consensus around a more widely acceptable candidate. What seems clear is that the army, seeing the level of popular support the AKP has just received, will be less enthusiastic about confronting it.

Assuming that the presidential elections do happen smoothly, domestic interest rates of 17.5 per cent will fall. That is one reason bank shares leapt on Monday. And declining political risk should allow investors to focus, once again, on Turkey's attractive economic fundamentals.

** <http://www.aporrea.org/ideologia/n98430.html> Giordani: No hay contradicción entre sector privado y socialismo venezolano Por: Agencia Bolivariana de Noticias (ABN) Fecha de publicación: 23/07/07

Caracas, 23 Jul. ABN (Juan José Espinoza).- " No existe contradicción alguna entre la empresa privada y el socialismo venezolano", sostuvo el ministro del Poder Popular para la Planificación y Desarrollo, Jorge Giordani.

<http://www.aporrea.org/ideologia/n98401.html> PSUV no será marxista-leninista porque "es una tesis dogmática no acorde con la realidad de hoy", afirma Chávez Por: Agencia Bolivariana de Noticias (ABN) Fecha de publicación: 22/07/07

<http://www.aporrea.org/ideologia/n98394.html> Chávez reitera que no es marxista: Soy socialista, bolivariano y revolucionario Por: Agencia Bolivariana de Noticias (ABN) Fecha de publicación: 22/07/07

On 7/24/07, Robert Wrubel <bobwrubel at yahoo.com> wrote:
> This comment seems almost lifted from one on the
> American economy around 1998. I'd be surprised if
> that remark about "pension legislation" means anything
> other than reduced protection for pensioners.

Here's some indication of what is to come. See the WSJ article on Turkey's jobless growth and the AKP's push for "labor flexibility."

<http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=115955> Parties unveil health care plans, but few differences

In the run-up to the July 22 general elections, Turkey's health care system and its reform has accounted for a significant portion of the election platforms of Turkey's political parties.

Opposition parties have harshly criticized health care policies pursued by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) during the last five years of government, and now they are promising to completely change the system. The AK Party has already planned a considerable overhaul of the system, which it will resume in the event it wins the elections.

Regardless of who wins, however, Turkey's health care system will see a full-fledged transformation after July 22. Social security reform, which the AK Party is set to enact on Jan. 1, 2008, will be implemented if the party again assumes office. Under an agreement concluded with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, Turkey is committed to the eventual implementation of this reform. Despite their opposition to the reform, the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) make promises that are nearly identical to the current reform plan.

Surveying the health care programs proposed by the political parties that are likely to pass the 10 percent election threshold, according to opinion polls, the Turkish Medical Agency has issued a report in which each political party's promises pertaining to health care and how they will change the health system are detailed. The report examines the health care programs of the AK Party, the CHP, and the MHP, as specified in their election platforms.

Changes introduced by the ruling AK Party during its five-year term are also mentioned. Before the 2002 elections the AK Party said it would ensure free access for all to medication from pharmacies. In the past those covered by the Social Security Authority (SSK) were not allowed to receive medication from ordinary pharmacies; instead they would use generic medication produced by the SSK from specified outlets.

Others that fell within the scope of the Pension Fund and Social Insurance for the Self-Employed (Bağ-Kur) could obtain medication from pharmacies. The AK Party eliminated this distinction among the SSK, the Bağ-Kur and the Pension Fund, allowing access to all pharmacies.

The AK Party also transferred hospitals subordinated to the SSK to the Health Ministry. A social reform bill was drafted that introduced standardization and unification of social security agencies, which would lead to abolishment to three separate social security agencies. This bill would have provided uniform practices concerning hospitalization and insurance processes of insured people from all three social security agencies. However the law, which was scheduled to be enacted in January 2007, was canceled by the Constitutional Court upon the CHP's application. In response the government changed the date of enactment to Jan. 1, 2008. Changes the AK Party was planning to introduce through the abortive social security reform are included in its election program. Other projects the AK Party is working on with respect to the health sector, include the "campus hospital" project, implemented by the Health Ministry in several pilot regions and projects for the sale of certain medications in ordinary stores.

Under their social security reform plan, the AK Party plans to eliminate paperwork from the health care system. Through smart cards everybody will receive medical services via their national ID numbers. The AK Party is also planning to give free medical care to the stateless people, refugees and aliens who have been living in Turkey for more than one year.

CHP and MHP have overlapping promises

Although it blocked the AK Party's social security reform plan, the CHP is also promising to provide free medical services through ID numbers. Concerning this project, Ali Riza Üçer, secretary of the Turkish Medical Agency, says: "It seems a favorable project, but how they will realize is not known. Their promises are very bold, however how they will be implemented or financed is unclear." Unlike the AK Party, the CHP suggests that the Social Security Institution (SGK) be privatized in administrative and financial terms. The CHP is also promising to decrease premium payment days from 9,000 to 7,000.

The CHP's promises also include in the budget monthly income support of YTL 300 million to poor families, application of inflation rate differences and increases in national income to pensions, and provision of free medical services to unmarried girls. The CHP will abolish the green card scheme under which poor people are given free medical services. The CHP also says it will make protective and basic medical services more effective and provide them free of charge.

However all these measures are already included in the AK Party's social security reform. It seems the CHP has only changed the name of General Medical Insurance into National Medical Insurance. "One can see no difference between the model proposed by the CHP and the AK Party's model," Üçer says.

The MHP has health and insurance proposals similar to those of the CHP. The MHP's promises include aid to the unemployed, one extra monthly pension payment to the retired every year, and provision of tax exemption to minimum wage workers. The MHP also says they will decrease insurance premiums paid by employers to 20 percent.

06.07.2007 ERCAN YAVUZ ANKARA

On 7/24/07, Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> wrote:
> <http://www.iscimucadelesi.net/english/sit_turkey06.htm>

Your appetite for the silliest section of "Trotskyists" appears unlimited. -- Yoshie



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