[lbo-talk] Output Falling in Oil-Rich Mexico, and Politics Gets the Blame

[Miles Jackson]

Yoshie Furuhashi wrote:
> What looks like the problem of "peak oil" to some is in reality the
> political problem of mismatch between who has oil and who has
> investment capital and advanced technology, in the context of rising
> domestic oil consumption on the part of oil producers, NOT a
> geological problem of running out of recoverable oil (which we WON'T
> any time soon).  This is actually a very politically interesting and
> important problem, at the heart of imperialist thought today, but
> "peak oil" theory confuses everything and turns attention of leftists
> away from the real problem. -- Yoshie

Et tu, Yoshie?  Using an empirically validated statistical model first 
developed by Hubbert, a number of well-respected geologists estimate 
that world oil production will peak within the next decade.  This is not 
a wild guess; it is an scientific hypothesis derived from a 
well-specified regression model and valid geological data.  We know this 
model nicely fits the pattern of oil production in a number of 
industrialized nations, including the United States.  Granted, it's not 
certain that the same model will accurately predict oil production 
patterns worldwide, but it's a reasonable scientific hypothesis.  In any 
case, it's an empirical question, and I'll be happy if, ten years from 
now, we can say that Hubbert's model does not apply to world oil production.

The reason why I keep beating this drum is that this does reflect an 
important political concern: sustainability.  The "real" problem here is 
not how the finite resource (oil) is being distributed; the real problem 
is how to build a sustainable society that does not assume the existence 
of infinite natural resources.  Contra Yoshie, I have to say that the 
analysis of the geopolitics of oil is what turns leftists away from the 
important problem here.

Miles