[snip]
>Et tu, Yoshie? Using an empirically validated statistical model first
>developed by Hubbert, a number of well-respected geologists estimate
>that world oil production will peak within the next decade.
[snip]
Maybe not. Maybe the peak has already happened.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t11c.xls
and
http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html
It might have peaked in May of 2005 and world oil production is currently on an "oscillating plateau" where output does vary a little bit, but not in response to change in price or change in demand.
If new, easily accessible sources of crude are not exploited very quickly the declines in Mexican, North Sea and even Saudi oil fields will easily out weigh any additional oil coming from Canadian tar sands or Arctic fields uncovered by retreating polar ice.
Remember, PEAK OIL is not about the sudden disappearance of crude oil. The phrase peak oil is about the maximum sustained extraction rate of crude oil from the ground.
In May of 2005 the estimated daily extraction rate was 74,151,000 barrels per day, according to the Energy Information Administration. That number has not been exceeded in any of the months since then. The average for all of 2006 was 73,460,000. Keep in mind that the difference between the peak in May 2005 and December 2006 is only 850,000 barrels per day. So if the peak actually did occur in May of 2005, we're still getting a lot of oil out of the ground 19 months later. This is the pattern predicted by most peak oil prognosticators. There might be a steep drop off in production some day, but the post-peak period will be very much like the pre-peak period. In fact, many peak oil types say the peak will occur something like two to three years before it's recognized.
Keith