[lbo-talk] Output Falling in Oil-Rich Mexico, and Politics Gets the Blame

[Yoshie Furuhashi]

On 3/10/07, Julio Huato <juliohuato at gmail.com> wrote:
> Then Yoshie comments:
>
> >What looks like the problem of "peak oil" to some is in reality the
> >political problem of mismatch between who has oil and who has
> >investment capital and advanced technology, in the context of rising
> >domestic oil consumption on the part of oil producers, NOT a
> >geological problem of running out of recoverable oil (which we WON'T
> >any time soon).  This is actually a very politically interesting and
> >important problem, at the heart of imperialist thought today, but
> >"peak oil" theory confuses everything and turns attention of leftists
> >away from the real problem.
>
> I agree it's a political problem.  But I'd frame it differently.
>
> PEMEX's problem is basically the same as FEMA's in the U.S.  In
> Mexico, you have a group of corrupt, incompetent prevaricators running
> the government (and government-controlled companies) who -- by their
> very nature of corrupt and incompetent prevaricators -- have it easy
> to show that the government is a bad manager.

Corruption has to be a sizable part of "low" performance, but how big
a part does it play, in Mexico or other producer nations?


> So, all this press on PEMEX and peak oil is to prepare conditions for
> -- indeed -- the privatization of PEMEX.  Since PEMEX provides a large
> chunk of the funds for social spending (education, health care,
> infrastructure, etc.), then this is their strategy to "starve the
> beast."  They want PEMEX for obvious reasons and also because that
> would tie the hands of a potential left-wing government in the future.
>  It's a class struggle.

So you think what looks to be underinvestment (real or just what's in
the press?) in the oil industry in Mexico, relative to export and
domestic consumption needs, is a conscious Mexican ruling-class
strategy of starving the beast?  What about the cases of other
producer nations (cf.
<http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/pipermail/lbo-talk/Week-of-Mon-20070305/004780.html>)?

The main struggle in many producer nations will certainly include
where energy profits get invested (at home?  if so, what proportions
will go to more energy development, other industries, infrastructure,
and current consumption?  how much will get into the global financial
markets and sustain the global credit boom, etc.), etc.  What are
Mexican leftists saying about these questions?

On 3/10/07, Miles Jackson <cqmv at pdx.edu> wrote:
> The reason why I keep beating this drum is that this does reflect an
> important political concern: sustainability.

"Peak oil" theorists are betting that the "peak" in global oil
production (which some say has already happened, others say is
happening now, and yet others say will be happening soon -- you can
never get the story straight) will compel conversion to ecologically
sustainable production and consumption.  It's basically wishful
thinking based on the reality of political powerlessness, i.e.,
powerless to bring about any such conversion, or even to take a few
practical steps in that direction, so hope springs eternal that an
imagined physical limit will force the hands of the ruling class or
motivate the apathetic working class or both.  (It's a Green
equivalent of wishful thinking rooted in economistic Red crisis
theory.)  No, that ain't happening.  If we want to have ecologically
sustainable production and consumption, we have to politically make it
happen without such a providential intervention of Nature.
-- 
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>
<http://mrzine.org>
<http://monthlyreview.org/>