> "Peak oil" theorists are betting that the "peak" in global oil
> production (which some say has already happened, others say is
> happening now, and yet others say will be happening soon -- you can
> never get the story straight) will compel conversion to ecologically
> sustainable production and consumption. It's basically wishful
> thinking based on the reality of political powerlessness, i.e.,
> powerless to bring about any such conversion, or even to take a few
> practical steps in that direction, so hope springs eternal that an
> imagined physical limit will force the hands of the ruling class or
> motivate the apathetic working class or both. (It's a Green
> equivalent of wishful thinking rooted in economistic Red crisis
> theory.) No, that ain't happening. If we want to have ecologically
> sustainable production and consumption, we have to politically make it
> happen without such a providential intervention of Nature.
I think you're dead on here with regard to the reaction of some to the prospect of peak oil, particularly with bringing about a kind of secular millenium with an inevitable desirable society on the other side. I don't think you can necessarily confine this notion to greens or lefties, though. Some take it as the grand opportunity to stick it to those romanticizing envrionmentalists and force the adoption of nuclear power. James Kunstler imagines the kind of neo-agrarian, small-town capitalism that many US progressives seem to glorify. There's something for everybody.
(I've pointed out earlier that there was a similar kind of Rorschach test in Y2K -- some anticipated a "resurgence of community", others looked forward to going into full-on survivalist compound mode with an arsenal to fend off the roaming bands of urban ex-welfare recipients. FWIW I expected much less than either of those, but something more than a Javascript glitch!)
But none of that has much bearing on how much is coming out of the ground (in whatever form) and with how much effort. The range of predictions that you cite reflect the range of opinion among analysts, including ones who say it's bunk but really seem to mean that it's going to happen later this century and be more spread out over time.
And, yeah, the prospect of burning the oil or something else to replace it seems to be an order of magnitude worse than not having it to burn.
-- Andy