[lbo-talk] Russia's Economy

[Yoshie Furuhashi]

On 5/9/07, Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> wrote:
> > > You can't sustain 7% growth rates on that forever.
> >
> > You can't sustain 7% growth rates on anything.  Even Japan slowed
> > down, and so will China and India in the end.
>
> No kidding. But Japan sustained something like that for 30 years, and
> China has for 20. And Japan invested over 30% of GDP in the high-
> growth years. That's how they kept it going for three decades. I
> don't see how Russia can do that with U.S. levels of investment.

On 5/9/07, andie nachgeborenen <andie_nachgeborenen at yahoo.com> wrote:
> To say that Russia COULD end up like China without
> saying why it is likely to is to say, in effect, Well,
> they MIGHT be magic beans.

But what if the Russians don't want to be like the Chinese, many of
whom put up with a lot more in the way of exploitation, absence of
civil liberties and political freedoms, and so on (just as the
Japanese, the South Koreans, and the Taiwanese did earlier) than most
citizens of Russia?  Is there any way Russia's leadership can make
their country grow a lot richer than it is without making its citizens
do what China's leadership have had its citizens do?  Moreover, is
China's economy a lot more stable than Russia's -- both depend quite a
bit on exports, albeit of different kinds to different markets -- and
the way the US market is going, it's very much possible that the
Chinese will come to grief sooner than the Russians.

On 5/9/07, andie nachgeborenen <andie_nachgeborenen at yahoo.com> wrote:
> I confess I find your attachment to Russian
> authoritarianism disconcerting -- it's less alarming
> than Yoshie's endorsement of reactionary theocracy in
> Iran, but neither strike me as socialist attitudes.

No one is saying that Iran or Russia is socialist.  It's up to the
Iranians and the Russians to decide whether they want socialism, and
it looks like neither people do at present, and in this they are very
much like many other peoples.

Besides, if authoritarianism is what you really hate, why recommend China?
--
Yoshie