I do not know if he is right that the R's are moving away from social conservatism as a bottom-line, but I do know that if Giuliani wins the primary I believe he is a lock to win the general election. In fact I think he would win in an electoral college landslide, taking the midwest with him entirely. For folks interested in the R's being out of power, pray for McCain or the Law & Order guy.
President Giuliani is gonna be a really shitty era. Just think, if the Bush team had been competently running a far-right program instead of apparently coming to work drunk for eight years, we might have nationwide right to work law, a flat tax, national school vouchers and privatized social security.
> [from an article by Thomas Byrne Edsall in the new New Republic]
>
> <http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20070521&s=edsall052107>
>
> [...]
>
> Many observers believe Giuliani's early success is the result of his
> calculated move rightward--a savvy effort to trick conservative
> voters into believing he is really one of them. But there is another
> possibility, one that assumes a bit more intelligence on the part of
> conservative voters like DePass: What if we are witnessing not Rudy
> moving toward the rest of the Republican Party, but rather the
> Republican Party moving toward Rudy? What if the salience of a
> certain kind of social conservatism is now in decline among GOP
> voters and a new set of conservative principles are emerging to take
> its place? What if Giuilianism represents the future of the
> Republican Party?
>
>