[lbo-talk] Alas, poor Citibank!

Carl Remick carlremick at gmail.com
Tue Nov 6 15:12:53 PST 2007


On 11/6/07, Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> wrote:
>
> On Nov 6, 2007, at 1:21 PM, Carl Remick wrote:
>
> > Citi and Merrill Lynch as the epicenter of perhaps the greatest
> > capital crisis the US has ever seen
>
> Oh please. Do you realize how many competitors there are for such a
> title? You have any idea what kind of speculative crap the USA pumped
> out in the last 30 years of the 19th century? In the 1920s? How
> different is this from the junk bonds and S&Ls of the 1980s?
> Securities fraud and financial crises are even more American than
> tarte aux pommes.

I readily concede that. Among the reasons that Dickens was so sour on the US in the 1840s was that it was a nation of slobs (as I recently noted in quoting his American Notes), slaveholders and deadbeats. European investors apparently lost a lot of money is US flimflams like the United States Bank of Pennsylvania, which went bankrupt in 1841 from speculating in the cotton market. Dickens mentions seeing this bankrupt institution in during his visit to Philly: " Looking out of my chamber-window, before going to bed, I saw, on the opposite side of the way, a handsome building of white marble, which had a mournful ghost-like aspect, dreary to behold. I attributed this to the sombre influence of the night, and on rising in the morning looked out again, expecting to see its steps and portico thronged with groups of people passing in and out. The door was still tight shut, however; the same cold cheerless air prevailed .... I hastened to inquire its name and purpose, and then my surprise vanished. It was the Tomb of many fortunes; the Great Catacomb of investment; the memorable United States Bank."

And of course there is no need to dwell non the devilishly clever market-riggers of the 1920s or the evil genius of Wall Street's securitizing "rocket scientists" over the past generation.

The prudent point you would surely make is that US capitalism has *survived and flourished* despite all the financial escapades of many generations. But -- to utter those most fateful words -- I think This Time It Is Different. I think Wall Street has finally outsmarted itself in a terminally risky way through financial engineering, creating derivatives whose risk and value are impossible to calculate.

And I think it's far more worrisome that the US carries a huge external debt than it did in the 19th century. Back then the US was a young rapidly industrializing resource-rich nation that could afford high levels debt and corruption. Now we have a massively expensive but incompetent military establishment, rotted-out heavy industries, decaying national infrastruction and a half-assed service economy.

Yes, the system has endured awesome challenges over the last 30 and more years -- the OPEC oil shock, US hyperinfaltion, the LBO mania, the S&L crisis, the mini-stock-market collapse of '87, the LTCM fiasco, the telecom and dotcom bubbles, etc.

But despite that resilience, there is reason to believe This Time Will Be Different. The dollar for the first time faces serious competition as the world's reserve currency. The nation's worst financial vulnerabilities -- (1) consumer debt fueled by house-equity loans and (2) collapsing real estate values -- augur inescapable woe for he nation's economy. And due to Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, etc., the hegemonic US bestrides the narrow world as the most colossal laughingstock ever seen.

For all these reasons and more, I believe This Time Is Different.

Carl



More information about the lbo-talk mailing list