--- Wojtek Sokolowski <swsokolowski at yahoo.com> wrote:
" Otherwise, his babbling about his nuclear program is akin to a poker player revealing his hand before the betting is over. It does not make sense. "
Maybe, to use the NY Times description of Bush's bellicosity, Ahmadinejad is engaging in "trash-talking". For the same reasons as Bush -- domestic consumption.
BobW
>
> --- Bryan Atinsky <bryan at alt-info.org> wrote:
>
>
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article2827787.ece
> >
> > A claim by President Ahmadinejad that Iran has
> 3,000
> > working
> > uranium-enriching centrifuges sent a tremor across
> > the world yesterday
> > amid fears that Israel would respond by bombing
> the
> > country’s nuclear
> > facilities.
> >
>
> [WS:] Something does not add up here. Nukes,
> especially in small numbers, work only as a
> deterrent
> rather than a tactical weapon. A "pissant little
> country" (to use a memorable quote by a foremer
> POTUS)
> that has them can effectively use a threat to use
> them
> if attacked to make a potential aggressor think
> twice,
> but once its nukes are in the air it faces a ceratin
> retaliation and destruction.
>
> Pakistan and India are a case in point. Paki nukes
> are only good against India when they sit in their
> silos. If they are lauched, their deterrent effect
> is
> gone. India may sustain considerable damage, but
> she
> will not only be able to wipe Pakistan off the face
> of
> the Earth, but have a really strong incentive to do
> so.
>
> It makes therefore sense for such a country to
> advertise that it has nukes only when it actually
> has
> them ready. Only the actual possession of such
> weapons can reduce a chance of being attacked.
> Advertising a desire to acquire them makes no sense
> whatsoever - it only increases a chance of an attack
> rather than decresing it.
>
> With that in mind I am quite nonplussed by
> Ahmadinejad's broadcasting that he is about to
> produce
> nukes. If what he is saying is true, a rational
> thing to do is to keep his mouth shut until he
> actually has a nuke ready for action and then say to
> the US and its allies "By the way, I will use it if
> you fuck with me." Otherwise, his babbling about
> his
> nuclear program is akin to a poker player revealing
> his hand before the betting is over. It does not
> make
> sense.
>
> Wojtek
>
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