[lbo-talk] gloom

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Tue Nov 20 14:47:03 PST 2007


ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST CONSUMER INDEX – 11/18/07 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 20, 2007

Pessimism Spikes, Confidence Low

Economic pessimism spiked this week to its worst in 17 years, with 68 percent of Americans saying the economy is getting worse – up a sharp 13 points from last month to its highest since November 1990, shortly after the economy fell into a recession.

Confidence in current economic conditions, meanwhile, has slipped to a point away from its 2007 low, and remains in its longest trough since just after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The results are troubling with so-called Black Friday, the traditional start to the holiday shopping season, just days away. With gas holding at $3.10 a gallon, rocky credit and housing markets and an unstable stock market, retailers' prospects seem highly uncertain.

EXPECTATIONS – Economic pessimism in this poll echoes a result from an ABC/Post poll earlier this month, in which 69 percent of Americans called it at least somewhat likely that there'll be a recession in the year ahead.

Now, as noted, about the same number, 68 percent say the economy is getting worse, up from 55 percent last month, far higher than its average, 39 percent in ABC/Post polls since 1981. Pessimism was higher twice before, 77 percent in October and November 1990, amid both a recession and climbing oil prices after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait.

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