On Oct 3, 2007, at 12:56 PM, Mr. WD wrote:
> Any guesses on what kinds of processes might make this kind of thing
> happen? Does too much boom-iness somehow signal to the
> opinion-forming elites that some tightening is in order? I wonder
> what those signals would be. Likewise, I wonder what signs of popular
> restiveness would cause the opinion-forming elites to push things over
> to the Dems.
Yeah, the spottiness of the mechanisms is one reason I'm reluctant to embrace this, despite its neat functionalism.
But...workers were very confident by 2000, at the end of the boom. If it had gone on longer, maybe the Dixie Chicks would have recorded a cover of "Take This Job And Shove It," or something. Now, if you look at the classic "right track/wrong track" poll question, the numbers are looking borderline scary. E.g.:
> October 03, 2007
> Americans Explain Their Satisfaction With the State of the Nation
> Americans mostly dissatisfied because of economic factors
>
> by Joseph Carroll
> GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
>
> PRINCETON, NJ -- Over the course of the year, Americans'
> satisfaction with the way things are going in the country has been
> quite low -- with fewer than 3 in 10 Americans saying they are
> satisfied. But what are the reasons why Americans are dissatisfied
> with the state of the nation? The latest Gallup Panel poll asked
> Americans to explain, in their own words, the reasons why they are
> satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the
> country at this time. Factors relating to the nation's economy --
> including jobs, housing, taxes, the stock market, the budget
> deficit, and personal finances -- are commonly mentioned as both
> positive and negative factors. But, dissatisfaction stems not only
> from the economy but also from frustration with government,
> perceived inaction on domestic issues such as healthcare and
> immigration, and the war in Iraq.
On Gallup's "mood of the country" question - "are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?", the answer is 71% negative, 28% positive, a gap of 43 points. It was worse in 1992, the time of jobless recovery and 41's dithering: 77 negative, 21 positive, a 56-point gap. And it was wider in 1979, the stagflationary hostage malaise days, 77-19, or 58 points. So we're not at record levels of negativity, but it's getting close. Time to switch horses, eh?