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NPR: New and Emerging Issues Widen the Deomcrats' 2008 Lead Greenberg Quinlan Rosner / Public Opinion Strategies
Executive Summary
As anger with the country’s direction grows worse, the evolving issues debated in the Congress and in the presidential primaries and fought out with President Bush are virtually all pushing the country further into the arms of the Democrats, widening the Democrats’ lead, including that of Hillary Clinton. We asked about ten issues ‘being debated’ today. By 23 points, 54 to 31 percent, voters say that health insurance for children is making them more likely to vote Democratic for Congress. As the battle over the budget begins, the evolving debate is pushing voters by 18 points to the Democrats on ‘the budget and budget deficit' and even by 10 points on ‘taxes and spending.'
While approval of Congress has dropped to 25 percent, voters’ response to that is to elect more Democrats to Congress. We asked voters specifically about ‘the way things are going in Congress’ and by 13 points (48 to 35 percent), it led them to vote more Democratic. The Republicans still own the mess in Washington and voters still want to vote for change.
Democrats, in a generic-ballot presidential race, now hold a 13-point lead (49 to 36 percent) over Republicans, and are winning counties carried by Bush in 2004 (44 to 41 percent). But more important, Hillary Clinton has strengthened electorally - defeating the new entrant and savior, Fred Thompson, by 8 points (50 to 42 percent) and Rudy Giuliani by 3 points (47 to 44 percent). For the first time in our polling she runs stronger than Barack Obama, lessening the issue of electability.
Methodology
These results are based on a bi-partisan survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner in conjunction with Public Opinion Strategies for National Public Radio. The survey fielded October 4, 6 and 7. It has a sample size of 800 likely voters and a margin of error of +/-3.5 percent. The survey was fielded by Public Opinion Strategies.
Key Findings
* General Petraeus has finished his Washington tour, but the Iraq debates still moves voters to vote Democratic by 12 points, with 41 percent ‘strong’ - matching the highest for any issue. That advantage holds with a robust debate - with the Democrats underscoring that over 100,000 troops will be trapped in an ‘endless religious civil war,’ with the ‘cost above ten billion per month.’
* As the mortgage crisis raises concerns about the economy, voters scorn Republicans’ optimistic assessment of the economy and instead favor a Democratic message in support of the middle class by a stunning 33-point margin (63 to 30 percent). The economy grows as an issue.
* The debate is more even on spending - suggesting the need for Democrats’ to take concerns about spending and government accountability seriously.
* The immigration issue is currently playing out evenly between the parties and the robust debate in this survey slightly favors the Republicans. Still, the Democratic argument is credible - accepting a practical path to citizenship - but includes a commitment to strong enforcement and barring immigrants from getting most government benefits. But note that 40 percent of Democrats favor the Republicans’ ‘take no prisoners’ approach.
* "As the battle over the budget begins, the evolving debate is pushing voters by 18 points to the Democrats on ‘the budget and budget deficit' and even by 10 points on ‘taxes and spending.'"