[lbo-talk] Putin in Iran

Robert Wrubel bobwrubel at yahoo.com
Tue Oct 16 11:22:22 PDT 2007


Yoshie said: "Iran and Russia can come up with a win-win solution for them, while getting Europeans to consent to it, it will be a great leap forward to checking US hegemony."

That is true. They have great leverage over Europe in Europe's natural gas dependency. And there's a larger framework, involving China and the oil-rich Caucasus nations (I cant remember the formal name of this recently formed "cooperative" alliance.) Beyond that Putin is reaching out toward nations like Brazil (the BRICS group) and Venezuela.

The US is exploring its own counter alliance with Japan, Australia and India. In general, the US seems to be improvising hastily, after distracting itself with Iraq and taking its eye off the larger geo-political stage.

The danger is that if the US sees itself being hemmed in, it could escalate its current military response.

BobW

--- Yoshie Furuhashi <critical.montages at gmail.com> wrote:


> This is the energy front of the Great Game of the
> 21st century. If
> Iran and Russia can come up with a win-win solution
> for them, while
> getting Europeans to consent to it, it will be a
> great leap forward to
> checking US hegemony. It is not impossible, for
> Post-Soviet Russia
> and post-Khomeini Iran, i.e., less ideologically
> dogmatic on both
> sides, have certain common interests, unless the
> Russians think it is
> more important to prevent Iran's rise as a gas
> exporter than to deny
> US hegemony in Central Asia. -- Yoshie
>
>
<http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/17/world/17iran.html>
> October 17, 2007
> In Iran, Putin Warns Against Military Action
> By NAZILA FATHI
>
> TEHRAN, Oct. 16 — President Vladimir V. Putin of
> Russia told a summit
> of five Caspian Sea nations in Iran today that any
> use of military
> force in the Caspian region was unacceptable and in
> a declaration the
> countries agreed that none of them would allow their
> territories to be
> used as a base for launching military strikes
> against any of the
> others.
>
> "We should not even think of making use of force in
> this region," Mr.
> Putin said. "We are saying that no Caspian nation
> should offer its
> territory to third powers for use of force or
> military aggression
> against any Caspian state," he added.
>
> Mr. Putin's comments and the declaration come at a
> time when France
> and the United States have refused to rule out
> military action to halt
> Iran's nuclear program, which they believe is
> focused on nuclear
> weapons. Iran says its program is for peaceful
> purposes.
>
> The comments were also a strong message that Russia
> objects to any
> American military presence in other Caspian Sea
> states.
>
> Mr. Putin arrived in Tehran today for strategic
> meetings with Iran and
> leaders from three other nearby Caspian Sea nations
> that have rich oil
> and gas resources, promising to use dialogue to try
> to resolve the
> international debate over Iran's nuclear program.
>
> He was the first Kremlin leader to travel to Iran
> since 1943, when
> Stalin attended a wartime summit meeting with
> Churchill and Roosevelt.
> Russia has obstructed a third set of sanctions
> against Iran at the
> United Nations that are intended to persuade the
> country to stop
> enrichment activities, which Western nations fear
> could lead to the
> development of nuclear weapons. Iran insists it
> wants to use its
> nuclear program for conventional purposes only.
>
> Mr. Putin, who stresses the need for further
> dialogue and working
> within the International Atomic Energy Agency, was
> scheduled to meet
> President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad twice today.
>
> The main reason for the trip is ostensibly a meeting
> in Tehran of
> nations that border the Caspian Sea, including the
> leaders of
> Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. They will
> discuss the
> division of the Caspian Sea resources, particularly
> oil, among the
> five coastline states.
>
> With world oil prices at about $86 a barrel, the
> legal status and
> ownership of the sea's vast oil and gas deposits
> have become a
> contentious issues.
>
> "The division of the sea is not less important than
> the nuclear
> program," said Ahmad Nateq Nouri, a former
> parliamentary speaker, in a
> report carried on the Fars news agency.
>
> Before 1991, Iran and the Soviet Union each took 50
> percent of the oil
> and gas from the Caspian Sea. But after the fall of
> the Soviet Union,
> and the independence of its constituent republics,
> the division of the
> oil became more complicated.
>
> Iran, whose coastline makes up about 13 percent of
> the sea, has
> insisted that it will not agree to a share of less
> than 20 percent.
>
> Right now the nations are developing the oil
> resources as they see
> fit, without an international agreement. A joint
> agreement could spur
> new development projects, which Russia and Iran want
> to pursue without
> looking outside the region for foreign investment.
>
> "On many issues we have reached final agreement but
> we also need
> collective cooperation," said Mr. Ahmadinejad in his
> inauguration
> speech at the gathering today. "The goal is to keep
> the sea clear of
> military competitions and keep foreigners out of the
> region."
>
> However, the summit concluded without a clear
> agreement on territorial
> shares. The leaders said in the declaration that the
> sea would be used
> for peaceful purposes and its issues would be
> resolved by the
> coastline states.
>
> As part of their nuclear talks, Mr. Putin and Mr.
> Ahmadinejad were
> expected to discuss the completion of a nuclear
> power plant that
> Russia is building in the southern city of Bushehr.
>
> Russia has given various reasons for the delay in
> completing the plant.
>
> Mr. Putin was received by the foreign minister,
> Manouchehr Mottaki, at
> the Tehran airport, according to state-run
> television. Mr. Putin, who
> had flown from Germany, where he met Chancellor
> Angela Merkel on
> Monday, went ahead with the trip despite a report of
> a possible
> assassination plot against him in Iran.
>
> On Sunday evening, the Interfax news agency in
> Moscow reported that
> Mr. Putin had received a warning from the Russian
> special services
> that his life would be in danger during his trip.
> Interfax cited a
> single security person as its source whom it did not
> name. This person
> talked of potential groups of suicide bombers. Other
> news agencies
> sent out similar reports on Monday but without
> details or evidence,
> and Iran dismissed the reports.
>
> "Tehran and Moscow are strategic partners," Kazem
> Jalali, a member of
> Parliament, said in an interview with state
> television. "We are
> against unilateral policies and so is Russia," he
> said, referring to
> American efforts to exert pressure on Tehran to
> cease any questionable
> nuclear development. "This puts us both in the same
> front," he said.
>
> Russia and China hold veto power on the United
> Nations Security
> Council, and Iran is relying on both countries —
> which have important
> trade ties with Iran — to oppose another round of
> sanctions. Moscow
> voted for two sets of earlier sanctions but it has
> said that it will
> not support a third set unless it is proven that
> Iran has a program to
> build nuclear weapons.
>
> In addition to the nuclear power plants, and
> business ties, Moscow has
>
=== message truncated ===



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