[lbo-talk] Putin in Iran

Yoshie Furuhashi critical.montages at gmail.com
Tue Oct 16 07:31:55 PDT 2007


This is the energy front of the Great Game of the 21st century. If Iran and Russia can come up with a win-win solution for them, while getting Europeans to consent to it, it will be a great leap forward to checking US hegemony. It is not impossible, for Post-Soviet Russia and post-Khomeini Iran, i.e., less ideologically dogmatic on both sides, have certain common interests, unless the Russians think it is more important to prevent Iran's rise as a gas exporter than to deny US hegemony in Central Asia. -- Yoshie

<http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/17/world/17iran.html> October 17, 2007 In Iran, Putin Warns Against Military Action By NAZILA FATHI

TEHRAN, Oct. 16 — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia told a summit of five Caspian Sea nations in Iran today that any use of military force in the Caspian region was unacceptable and in a declaration the countries agreed that none of them would allow their territories to be used as a base for launching military strikes against any of the others.

"We should not even think of making use of force in this region," Mr. Putin said. "We are saying that no Caspian nation should offer its territory to third powers for use of force or military aggression against any Caspian state," he added.

Mr. Putin's comments and the declaration come at a time when France and the United States have refused to rule out military action to halt Iran's nuclear program, which they believe is focused on nuclear weapons. Iran says its program is for peaceful purposes.

The comments were also a strong message that Russia objects to any American military presence in other Caspian Sea states.

Mr. Putin arrived in Tehran today for strategic meetings with Iran and leaders from three other nearby Caspian Sea nations that have rich oil and gas resources, promising to use dialogue to try to resolve the international debate over Iran's nuclear program.

He was the first Kremlin leader to travel to Iran since 1943, when Stalin attended a wartime summit meeting with Churchill and Roosevelt. Russia has obstructed a third set of sanctions against Iran at the United Nations that are intended to persuade the country to stop enrichment activities, which Western nations fear could lead to the development of nuclear weapons. Iran insists it wants to use its nuclear program for conventional purposes only.

Mr. Putin, who stresses the need for further dialogue and working within the International Atomic Energy Agency, was scheduled to meet President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad twice today.

The main reason for the trip is ostensibly a meeting in Tehran of nations that border the Caspian Sea, including the leaders of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. They will discuss the division of the Caspian Sea resources, particularly oil, among the five coastline states.

With world oil prices at about $86 a barrel, the legal status and ownership of the sea's vast oil and gas deposits have become a contentious issues.

"The division of the sea is not less important than the nuclear program," said Ahmad Nateq Nouri, a former parliamentary speaker, in a report carried on the Fars news agency.

Before 1991, Iran and the Soviet Union each took 50 percent of the oil and gas from the Caspian Sea. But after the fall of the Soviet Union, and the independence of its constituent republics, the division of the oil became more complicated.

Iran, whose coastline makes up about 13 percent of the sea, has insisted that it will not agree to a share of less than 20 percent.

Right now the nations are developing the oil resources as they see fit, without an international agreement. A joint agreement could spur new development projects, which Russia and Iran want to pursue without looking outside the region for foreign investment.

"On many issues we have reached final agreement but we also need collective cooperation," said Mr. Ahmadinejad in his inauguration speech at the gathering today. "The goal is to keep the sea clear of military competitions and keep foreigners out of the region."

However, the summit concluded without a clear agreement on territorial shares. The leaders said in the declaration that the sea would be used for peaceful purposes and its issues would be resolved by the coastline states.

As part of their nuclear talks, Mr. Putin and Mr. Ahmadinejad were expected to discuss the completion of a nuclear power plant that Russia is building in the southern city of Bushehr.

Russia has given various reasons for the delay in completing the plant.

Mr. Putin was received by the foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, at the Tehran airport, according to state-run television. Mr. Putin, who had flown from Germany, where he met Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday, went ahead with the trip despite a report of a possible assassination plot against him in Iran.

On Sunday evening, the Interfax news agency in Moscow reported that Mr. Putin had received a warning from the Russian special services that his life would be in danger during his trip. Interfax cited a single security person as its source whom it did not name. This person talked of potential groups of suicide bombers. Other news agencies sent out similar reports on Monday but without details or evidence, and Iran dismissed the reports.

"Tehran and Moscow are strategic partners," Kazem Jalali, a member of Parliament, said in an interview with state television. "We are against unilateral policies and so is Russia," he said, referring to American efforts to exert pressure on Tehran to cease any questionable nuclear development. "This puts us both in the same front," he said.

Russia and China hold veto power on the United Nations Security Council, and Iran is relying on both countries — which have important trade ties with Iran — to oppose another round of sanctions. Moscow voted for two sets of earlier sanctions but it has said that it will not support a third set unless it is proven that Iran has a program to build nuclear weapons.

In addition to the nuclear power plants, and business ties, Moscow has military deals with Iran.

"The visit is a big victory for Iran in the face of efforts by the West which is trying to isolate Iran," wrote the semi-official Fars news agency which often represents the views of Mr. Ahmadinejad.

<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aWy6HIFrafHk&refer=europe> Putin Heads to Iran, Seeking Tighter Grip on Europe's Energy

By Lucian Kim Enlarge Image/Details

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- President Vladimir Putin will seek to strengthen Russian control over Europe's energy supplies when he meets in Iran with the other leaders of the five states around the Caspian Sea, which together hold almost half the world's natural gas and a fifth of its oil.

Putin, the first Kremlin leader to visit Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution, will also hold separate talks tomorrow with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad amid efforts by the U.S. and its allies to force Iran to end its nuclear program. Putin today confirmed he will travel to Tehran, a day after he was warned of a plan to assassinate him there.

Russia, supplier of a quarter of Europe's gas, still monopolizes export pipelines out of Central Asia, leading former Soviet states Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to consider alternative routes to world markets. Iran, meanwhile, is redoubling efforts to become a new source of gas for Europe. Putin is pursuing agreements with these countries to give Russia more control over the global gas market.

``Putin is afraid his plan for control over Central Asian energy is falling apart,'' said Mikhail Korchemkin, director of the East European Gas Analysis consultancy. ``Putin wants to get access to Iran's tap before it's even opened. His whole idea is eliminating competition from other oil and gas producers.''

Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan have been at odds over how to divide the Caspian since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Iran advocates splitting the landlocked body of water into five equal parts, while the other countries want sectors corresponding to their coastlines, which would cut Iran's share to less than 15 percent.

Refining Hub

Iran, under pressure for its nuclear program, is seeking to become a refining hub for Central Asian oil and gas by expanding existing export routes. The Islamic Republic, which holds the world's largest gas reserves after Russia, is also trying to plug into a planned pipeline linking Turkey to central Europe.

There's no legal precedent for dividing the Caspian, said Gareth Winrow, a professor of international relations at Istanbul Bilgi University. ``That's what makes this question so open and fluid,'' Winrow said. ``The law is being used as a screen to hide various political and economic goals.''

The U.S. is pushing a plan to build an underwater pipeline linking Turkmenistan, on the eastern shore of the Caspian, with Azerbaijan in the west. The link would bypass Russia and give Europe access to Turkmenistan, the second-largest gas producer in the former Soviet Union.

Kazakhstan, holder of 3 percent of the world's oil and the biggest field discovered since the 1970s, plans to double oil production by 2015. The country, which exports most of its oil through Russian pipelines, is pursuing alternate routes to China, Turkey and Georgia.

'Clock Is Ticking'

Kazakh and Turkmen leaders pledged to increase gas shipments via Russia during a meeting with Putin in May, though a September deadline for reaching a more detailed agreement was missed.

``For Russia the clock is ticking,'' said Chris Weafer, chief strategist at UralSib Bank in Moscow. ``Russia needs to extend its energy relationship with Europe and Central Asia before Iran is rehabilitated.''

Iran is counting on Russia's continuing diplomatic support and increasing European and Asian competition for its resources to help counter growing pressure from the U.S., which is seeking tougher United Nations sanctions for what it claims is Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

Putin rejected the U.S. claim Oct. 11, saying during a news conference in Moscow with French President Nicolas Sarkozy that there's no firm evidence Iran is seeking to produce a bomb. Sarkozy called for tighter UN sanctions ahead of his visit.

`Gas Cartel'

The Kremlin denies that by maintaining the status quo it's keeping Iran crippled as a potential energy rival.

``Russia is not benefiting from the isolation of Iran,'' Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, said in an interview. ``We'll only welcome deeper involvement of Iran in the system of energy communication.''

In Tehran, Putin may try to formalize a cartel-like gas organization as a way of keeping Iran and other gas producers in check, Korchemkin said by phone from Malvern, Pennsylvania, where his consultancy is based.

At a summit in Doha, Qatar, in April, Russia led the drive for the world's biggest natural-gas producing countries to coordinate pricing along the lines of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

``Putin's ideal is Standard Oil,'' Korchemkin said, referring to the late 19th-century American monopoly. ``He thinks if he can cut gas production, he'll be able to manipulate the price, like OPEC does every other week.''

Peskov rejected the idea, saying Russia has proved itself to be a reliable energy supplier to Europe even during the Cold War.

``It's not an issue of cartel agreements,'' Peskov said. ``The demand for energy resources is growing much faster than supply. Being a responsible member of the international community, Russia is ready to secure its supply and ensure that demand is satisfied.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Lucian Kim in Tehran at lkim3 at bloomberg.net . Last Updated: October 15, 2007 09:54 EDT -- Yoshie



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