http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkHknUmnBaA
The first 25 minutes (after 4 minutes of intro you can skip) is entirely an attempt to make this historical analogy, and it's a suprising amount of fun -- very clear, very breezy and very informed.
The next 40 minutes is Q&A on Iraq which very good, but not unusual.
BTW, it's pure talking head -- you can listen to it like a radio while doing something else.
Michael