First, Georgia cannot join NATO as long as there are unresolved territorial conflicts within its borders.
Second, two-thirds of the population of Ukraine is opposed to NATO membership, sometimes violently so. The only was NATO is going into Eastern Ukraine is as an occupying army.
Third, the last thing Russia wants is to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. For one, if it did, then Georgia could join NATO (see above). For another, that is an extremely volatile part of the world and any armed conflict between Tbilisi and the breakaway regions is going to attract volunteer fighters (Islamists, Ossetian nationalists, Cossacks) from all over South Russia and the Caucasus in general, just like happened last time, thereby potentially dragging in Dagestan, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, and Chechnya.
Now this would be sort of funny if it actually did happen, in a sick kind of way, because the Economist would have to explain to its readers why heroic Chechen freedom-fighters were shooting Georgian troops.
--- ken hanly <northsunm at yahoo.com> wrote:
> The membership of Georgia and the Ukraine has just
> been delayed. What happens when it joins and say
> Russia recognises Abkazia or South Ossetia against
> the
> wishes of Georgia. Does NATO intervene?
> Perhaps they will be recognised before this ever
> happens since a recent article in Moscow News Weekly
> mentions Kosovo as a precedent for recognising them.
> (This seems a bit surprising since I understand
> Russia
> takes the view that Kosovo should not be
> recognised.)
>
> http://www.mnweekly.ru/news/20080403/55321439.html
>
>
> --- Chris Doss <lookoverhere1 at yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> >
> > That's part of it. The EE countries are I think
> > trying
> > to use the Russia card as leverage to get the US
> to
> > back them against "Old Europe." Germany and France
> > are
> > pretty much against NATO enlargement, as far as I
> > know
> > (as is 65% of the population of Ukraine). Germany
> is
> > after all very dependent on Russian gas and is a
> > Russophilic country in general. It's not as if the
> > Baltic States have any other card to play.
> >
> > It is indeed symbolic. NATO is pretty much
> useless,
> > and the benefit to taking in a country like
> Georgia,
> > perched as it is constantly on the edge of civil
> > war,
> > or Ukraine, which could easily perch on the edge
> of
> > civil war and the population of which is against
> > NATO
> > membership, is not obvious.
> >
> > --- Wojtek Sokolowski <swsokolowski at yahoo.com>
> > wrote:
> >
> > > >
> > >
> > > [WS:] Possible. But do not forget the
> Russophobia
> > > of
> > > the new members of NATO and EU in Eastern
> Europe.
> > > One
> > > possibility is that the "old Europe" wants to
> > > placate
> > > these "little pissant countries" (to borrow a
> > > memorable quote from Richard Milhous Nixon) in
> the
> > > area where it does not matter that much (e.g.
> > > useless
> > > and largely symbolic military alliance), while
> > > curbing
> > > their influence where it actually counts (i.e.
> the
> > > economy and institutonal blueprint or EU).
> > >
> > > My hunch is that the West wants that Baltic
> > pipeline
> > > and trade with Russia badly, so to overcome the
> > > opposition from the pissant EE countries like
> > Poland
> > > or the Baltics, it throws them the crumbs via
> > NATO.
> > >
> > > Wojtek
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
>
____________________________________________________________________________________
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> >
>
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> > >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
> >
>
____________________________________________________________________________________
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