On Apr 8, 2008, at 3:39 PM, ken hanly wrote:
> Often it is stated in articles that a certain
> amount of the going oil price is the result of
> speculation and estimates are made of how much per
> barrel is caused by speculation. How on earth are
> these estimates made?
Build a supply-demand model, and then assume that the portion of the price that the model can't "explain" is the result of speculation (or war premium). I'm not saying that I agree with the results, but that's one way to do it.
Doug