On Sat, 12 Apr 2008, Doug Henwood wrote:
>>> The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer
>>> sentiment decreased to 63.2 this month, the weakest level since 1982,
>>> when the jobless rate approached 11 percent, the worst since the Great
>>> Depression.
>
> It's a really ugly number. It's fallen more sharply than in the average
> recession, and from a higher level. It'll be interesting to see how the
> Conference Board number comes out - it has explicit job market questions
> in the survey, whereas the Michigan survey doesn't.
Is confidence a leading, a lagging or a coincident indicator?
Michael