[lbo-talk] Gallup: Dem race now tied

[shag]

At 04:22 PM 4/25/2008, Gary Mongiovi wrote:
>Message: 17
>Date: Fri, 25 Apr 2008 16:03:57 -0400
>From: Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com>
>Subject: Re: [lbo-talk] Gallup: Dem race now tied
>To: lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org
>Message-ID: <8388D2CD-5DD7-42B1-AE0F-F8DBDD418BC0 at panix.com>
>Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII; delsp=yes; format=flowed
>
>
>Doug wrote:
>
> > A lead less than the margin of error is a tie. And the larger point
> > is that BHO's 10-point lead before Pennsylvania has collapsed.
>
>Does anyone have a hypothesis about this, because it sure mystifies me. 
>Obama did have an off night at the last debate, but Hillary's not any more 
>likable now than she was two weeks ago. Nor is there any reason to think 
>she'll be better able to beat McCain. She was expected to win in 
>Pennsylvania, so the post-Penn-Primary question "why can't he close?" 
>strikes me as a non sequitur; yet it seems to have got some traction in 
>the media. As far as I can tell, McCain would still rather run against 
>Hillary, which indicates that his people at least think Obama would be a 
>stronger candidate than Hillary, and they're probably right. I note in 
>passing that Obama looks & sounds more weary than he did a couple of weeks 
>ago, no doubt for good reason, so perhaps that's feeding into the sense 
>that he might not pull off the nomination.
>
>But I'd be interested to know what others think.
>
>Gary

i don't think they think he's a stronger candidate. i think they will be 
between a rock and a hard place because, if they go after him too hard, 
they will come off as even more racist than most people think. given their 
attempt to woo blacks, slowly but surely these past few years, they can't 
afford it. and if they choose a black veep, they really won't be able to go 
after him.

clinton is red meat for the base. they need to fire up their base in order 
to win. red meat gets the vote out.

i think the "why can't he close?" issue is being raised because teflobama 
can't seem to expand his base to the white working class. i think he could, 
but he's been fucked over with every attempt. and let's face it, he did 
come off as a hypocrite with the religion comment. after all, he's not 
claiming that he turns to religion or members of wright's congregation turn 
to religion because of economic hard times. basically, he only knows how to 
speak to people who aren't white, working class. you have got to be a 'tard 
to make a comment like that on the heels of his own religious brouhaha and 
not realize what an ass you sound like when you nail one community for 
being fucked up, but not another.

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