It's high but not ludicrous. If you do a simple projection of the OMB numbers you get $2.8 trillion (2009-2018). That is based on nominal growth of 11% a year from 2007-2013 in table above. With a higher but not kooky assumed rate of growth of health care spending you could hit it.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Tim Francis-Wright
> Sent: 01:05 pm
> To: lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org
> Subject: Re: [lbo-talk] McCain's health care "plan"
>
> B. wrote:
> > [Big surprise, his plan sucks and would actually
> > encourage employers to eliminate health care for their
> > workers, leaving those workers and their families as
> > free agents on the market. -B.]
>
> I read in the local rag that his advisors claim that the
> tax break for employer-provided health care coverage
> would cost $3.6 trillion over the next decade. This sounds
> ludicrously high to me--it is about twice the federal
> government's annual revenues outside of SS and Medicare.
> Does anyone have a figure for how big the tax break was in
> some recent year?
>
> --tim francis-wright
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