* * * War in the Caucasus Wall Street Journal August 9, 2008
"War has started," Vladimir Putin said yesterday as Georgian and Russian forces fought over the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia. War is certainly what the two countries have seemed to want for some time, and the chances of avoiding a drawn-out conflict now are slim.
It's unclear at this stage which side is more at fault for the current fighting. Georgia says it moved on the South Ossetian city of Tskhinvali yesterday after rebels there broke a cease-fire. But President Mikheil Saakashvili has long pledged to retake South Ossetia and another separatist area, Abkhazia, and may have underestimated Moscow's reaction.
Within hours, Russian tanks crossed the border to bolster Russian "peacekeepers" who have been stirring up trouble in the two regions. Georgia says Russian airplanes bombed Tskhinvali, reversing some Georgian army gains there, as well as air fields in nonseparatist areas. The Georgian air force claims to have shot down at least five Russian planes.
The biggest question now is whether Moscow will simply try to restore the previous status quo in South Ossetia -- with Russia and the rebels controlling most of the territory -- or go further and crush Georgia while deposing Mr. Saakashvili. Russian state TV yesterday reported that Georgian soldiers had killed at least 10 Russian troops and were "finishing off" wounded Russians, a worrisome sign that the Kremlin is trying to inflame public opinion ahead of a major operation. The markets clearly think this is more than a blip; the benchmark Russian stock index shed 6.5% to hit its lowest level since November 2006.
Speaking on CNN yesterday, Mr. Saakashvili compared Russia's actions to "the attack into Afghanistan, in 1979. It's like Czechoslovakia when Soviet and Russian tanks moved in. If they get away with this in Georgia, the world will be in trouble."
He's right about Russian ambitions in his region, but the West has already shown its unwillingness to push back against Moscow in the Caucasus. When the U.S. proposed NATO "membership action plans" for Georgia and Ukraine at an April summit in Bucharest, Germany vetoed the move. Berlin didn't want to anger Moscow, a fact that the Russians surely noticed as they contemplated when, or if, to move against the government of Mr. Saakashvili, who they have long despised as a reformer outside of the Kremlin's orbit.
Western leaders should have seen this coming. Russia has baited the hot-tempered Georgian leader with trade and travel embargoes as well as saber-rattling. Georgia has had to tolerate a few thousand Russian troops on its soil -- only Moscow recognizes the self-declared independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And in April, Russia downed a Georgian drone over Abkhaz -- that is, Georgian -- air space. Russia in recent years has also granted citizenship to the separatists. That looks like premeditation now: Russian President Dmitry Medvedev pledged yesterday to "protect the lives and dignity of Russian citizens, no matter where they are located."
Perhaps Mr. Saakashvili finally snapped and acted first here, as the Kremlin insists. If so, it was a huge mistake, as he has picked a fight with a much larger opponent and damaged his country's chances of joining NATO. The West may support Georgia's territorial integrity, but no one wants war with Russia.
Now it's up to NATO and especially the U.S. to persuade both sides to stand down. President Bush discussed the hostilities with Mr. Putin yesterday in Beijing, where they are attending the Olympics. The prime minister needs to hear that using Ossetia as a pretext for imperialism will have consequences for Russia's relationship with the West