[lbo-talk] The 'BRIC' countries as a new 'pole' in the global order - A bubble trade?

dredmond at efn.org dredmond at efn.org
Sun Aug 31 09:27:08 PDT 2008


On Sat, August 30, 2008 12:53 pm, boddi satva wrote:


> I ask about the BRIC development state, you give me:
>
> Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Venezuela, Central Europe (which is,
> of course, clamoring to join the EU and EMU), and FRANCE????

The BRIC thesis is problematic -- Brazil has the beginnings of a developmental state, while India is still very much a periphery.

France was a Second World economy in 1945, and got rich through dirigisme.


> The Chinese state-industrial complex is absolutely dependent on
> exports

Exports to Asia. Exports to the US - less so these days.


> First, these structures have failed, as yet, to internationalize.

Huawei, Lukoil, Gazprom, and all those sovereign wealth funds are international through and through.


>> They're not. 40% of world reserves are in non-dollars.
>
> That's 35%, actually, DOWN from about 43% in 1997.

There's a measurement problem, because actual reserves are a state secret. Most estimates I've seen (Brad Setser, e.g.) say 40% or thereabouts, and show a slow decline of dollar holdings.

-- DRR



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