Education and Gender Help Predict Democratic Preferences College education a major differentiator in choosing Clinton vs. Obama
by Frank Newport and Lydia Saad
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gender and education are both strong predictors of Democrats' preferences for their party's presidential nominee. Generally speaking, the more education a Democrat has, the less likely he or she is to support Hillary Clinton, and the more likely to support Barack Obama. Additionally, most women support Clinton, while men are more likely than women to support Obama.
An aggregate of Gallup Poll Daily election tracking interviews with Democrats, conducted from Feb. 1 through Feb. 7, shows that these two variables combine to become a powerful predictor of a Democrat's vote. Among the most highly educated Democrats -- those with postgraduate educations -- both men and women are more likely to support Obama than Clinton. Among the least educated -- those with no college experience -- both men and women are more likely to support Clinton than Obama.
The range of support for the candidates according to education and gender is as follows:
Obama beats Clinton by a 2-to-1 margin, 62% to 31%, among men with postgraduate-level educations. Although the margin is much smaller (49% vs. 42%), Obama also beats Clinton among women with postgraduate degrees. In other words, the strength of Obama's appeal to highly educated Democrats seems to be stronger than the pull of gender (i.e., Clinton's appeal to women).
Among those with college degrees but no postgraduate education, Obama wins over Clinton among men, but women in this group tilt slightly toward Clinton, by a 47% to 43% margin.
Among those with some college education (but not a four-year degree), Obama still wins among men (50% vs. 39%), while women show a slight preference for Clinton (49% vs. 44%).
Finally, in the group of Democrats with high-school diplomas or less, the impact of education is strong. Clinton beats Obama overwhelmingly among both men and women in this education group.
In short, education is a highly significant predictor of Democrats' vote choices, particularly among the two groups at the extreme ends of formal education -- those with postgraduate degrees and those with high school educations or less. Gender, too, is a predictor, but is essentially overwhelmed by the impact of education in the two extreme groups, such that both men and women who have postgraduate educations prefer Obama, and both men and women who have no formal education beyond high school fairly strongly support Clinton.