White Men Hold Key for Democrats Contest May Hinge On Blue-Collar Vote; Opening for McCain? By JONATHAN KAUFMAN February 19, 2008; Page A1
YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio -- In a Democratic presidential nomination race that pits a black man against a woman, the victor may well be determined by white men.
The working-class white men who toil in the steel mills and auto plants here are part of a volatile cohort that has long helped steer the nation's political course. Once, blue-collar males were the bedrock of Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal coalition. They became "Reagan Democrats," helping to propel Ronald Reagan into office in the 1980s. Bill Clinton won many of them back to the Democratic Party in 1992. Two years later they were "angry white males," resentful of affirmative action and the women's movement, who helped Republicans capture Congress.
'It seems like someone else should be there,' says Dan Leihgeber, a smelter in a Youngstown steel plant. Now this group of voters is set to help determine the Democratic nominee, and the next occupant of the White House. Working-class white men make up nearly one-quarter of the electorate, outnumbering African-American and Hispanic voters combined. As the Democratic primary race intensifies, some of these white men are finding it hard to identify with the remaining two candidates, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama.
"It seems like someone else should be there," says Dan Leihgeber, a smelter in a steel plant here, who is supporting Sen. Clinton. "It's like there's someone missing."
As the Democratic race moves toward primaries in blue-collar strongholds -- today in Wisconsin, Ohio on March 4 and Pennsylvania on April 22 -- the allegiance of blue-collar men is up for grabs. While Sen. Clinton runs strongly among working-class women, she and Sen. Obama are perceived equally favorably among working-class men, according to a January Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. The two candidates have seesawed among blue-collar men in the primaries: Sen. Clinton won them in Georgia, Missouri and New York, while Sen. Obama captured the working-class male vote in New Hampshire, California, Maryland and Virginia.
Blue-collar men could also emerge as an important swing constituency in November -- either backing the Democrats' eventual nominee, or shifting to some degree toward Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, whose war record and straight-talking approach could make him appealing to many working-class men.
Marc Dann, Ohio's Democratic attorney general, frets about the reluctance of some of these blue-collar Democrats to embrace either of his party's candidates. "I worry about [the appeal of] McCain," says Mr. Dann, who lives in Youngstown. "It's not like watching an episode of Archie Bunker -- but there are real issues" that white male voters here have with Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama.
Working-class men are generally defined as those without a college degree, including union members and workers with service and technical jobs, typically making less than $50,000 a year. They are especially crucial in Ohio, where they make up about 28% of the vote, as well as other battleground states including Michigan (about 27%), West Virginia (33%), Missouri (27%), Minnesota (27%), Pennsylvania (27%), Wisconsin (29%) and Iowa (34%).
In Youngstown, many working-class men say they will vote according to issues, especially economic ones including health care, free trade and the loss of manufacturing jobs. But in conversations in union halls, bars and factories, race and gender are never far from the surface.
"I don't think the country is ready for a woman president yet," says Duane Tkac, a burly vocational instructor at a prison here and a member of the local branch of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union. "The country is in too much turmoil. I don't think she can handle the pressure, the terrorists." He plans to vote for Sen. Obama.
Don Pompelia, retired from the Air Force, supports Sen. Clinton. "I'm hoping Hillary gets the nomination. But if she doesn't, I'm not voting for that guy. I'm going Republican," he booms as he picks up his morning coffee at McDonald's. "There are going to be a lot of people crossing over to the Republicans because he's black."
Back Into the Fold
After decades in which Republicans often successfully wooed blue-collar men, many Democrats see 2008 as a chance to bring them back into the fold, motivated by the worsening economy and their disaffection with President Bush. In the 2006 midterm election, union members and other working-class men voted for Democratic candidates by a margin of almost two to one, helping the Democrats win control of Congress.
Youngstown has been battered over the past 30 years by job losses and plant closings. Buoyed by unionized steel jobs that paid as much as $20 an hour, the city once had one of the country's highest per-capita incomes. But as companies have shuttered steel and auto plants, outsourcing jobs to nonunion parts of the country and overseas, the city's population has fallen by 50% since 1960, to about 80,000.
Few young people stay here; the average age at one steel plant is 55. Families survive because women have poured into the work force out of necessity, changing the dynamic within traditionally conservative families where women used to stay at home.
'Poster Child'
"For a lot of blue-collar guys over 40, Hillary Clinton is a poster child for everything about the women's movement that they don't like -- their wife going back to work, their daughters rebelling, the rise of women in the workplace," says Gerald Austin, an Ohio political strategist.
Mr. Leihgeber, the steelworker, says he supports Sen. Clinton for her experience and positions. He carries a book bag to work every day with his lunch and a newspaper inside and a Clinton button pinned to the outside. Some days, he says, he turns the bag around so the Clinton button doesn't show; he says he doesn't like dealing with his co-workers' derogatory comments. Mr. Leihgeber says he wouldn't be heckled so much for an Obama pin.
"People don't want to speak out against Obama because of the fear of being seen as racist," he says. "It's easier to say you want to keep a woman barefoot and pregnant....You can call a woman anything."
In national polls, white men overall have been more favorable than white women toward Sen. Obama. In a survey done in September by Pew Research, white men overall gave Sen. Obama more positive ratings than did white women, in categories including whether he was tough, smart, friendly and honest. In the same categories, white males gave Sen. Clinton consistently lower marks than white women did.
For some women, that confirms that sexism runs deeper than racism among many men. "My mother, who was the first woman lawyer in a big D.C. firm, always said that blacks got in before women," says Caryl Rivers, a professor at Boston University who supports Sen. Clinton. "Then the white guys figured everything had gone to hell anyway, so they might as well let the women in."
In Youngstown, Sen. Obama is seen through the prism of the city's changing racial makeup. Over the years, as Youngstown has become poorer, many whites have moved to surrounding towns and the minority population has increased. The Youngstown area is now one of the most segregated communities in the country, according to the 2000 U.S. Census.
Everyday racial tensions and animosity run high. A white cook at a local bar says he won't bother voting in this election. "What's the point," he says, rubbing his skin. "We're already a minority."
But for some white men here, Sen. Obama's appeal is that he is different from many black leaders they have seen in the past. "The guys I work with, they know Jesse Jackson and they know Al Sharpton. They call them all sorts of terrible things," says Robert Hagan, a locomotive engineer and a state representative, referring to these politicians' sometimes-inflammatory rhetoric and focus on black causes. "They don't talk about Obama like that."
Those here who dislike Sen. Obama tend to criticize what they call his empty rhetoric, his lack of experience and the fear that he would favor blacks and other minorities.
Many working-class men here say they are being lobbied by their teenage and young adult children to vote for Sen. Obama. And some of the area's newer businesses, such as its growing hospitals and the privately run prison, break down some of the racial and gender barriers found in the mills and auto plants that are still overwhelmingly white and male.
At a Teamsters hall here, a dozen burly men in gabardine jackets and baseball caps gather over coffee and overstuffed donuts for a union meeting of prison workers. "There is a misunderstanding that older white guys aren't going to vote for a black man," says Jim Marcum, a job counselor at the prison. "That's not true." Mr. Marcum says he voted for Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. This time he plans to vote for Sen. Obama. "He's a breath of fresh air."
Natalie Grant, a black woman who works with Mr. Marcum at the prison, walks in and grabs some coffee.
"You really voting for Obama?" she says.
"Yes," says Mr. Marcum.
Ms. Grant laughs. "I knew there was some brother in you," she says. Mr. Marcum smiles.
Three years ago, Youngstown elected its first African-American mayor, Jay Williams, a 36-year-old with little political experience who ran as an independent promising to unite the city. Mr. Williams won with the heavy support of the city's black community -- about 40% of the vote -- but also drew white votes from working-class and college neighborhoods.
"A lot of people thought Youngstown was 20 or 30 years away from this kind of change," says Mr. Williams, who has endorsed Sen. Obama.
Women, too, have made inroads in local politics. In 1994, there were no women elected at the county level, where real power lies. Today, women serve as county commissioner and treasurer, and hold several elected judicial seats.
"We deal with women at work," says John Lesicko, a teamster official. "We deal with HR people. She might be a" -- he raises his hands to form imaginary quote marks and silently mouths a slur -- "but we deal with her."
Leaning Toward Clinton
Across town, 14 steelworkers brought together to talk about the election say they predominantly supported Sen. John Edwards before he dropped out of the race. Now 13 of them say they are leaning toward Sen. Clinton. They praise her experience and toughness in withstanding the Monica Lewinsky scandal. Former President Bill Clinton remains enormously popular here, with many blue-collar men saying that they like the fact that he would be in the White House as well.
"I think she has the right person in the bedroom with her," says Joe Marion, who works at the local prison.
Betty Ingramn doesn't buy it. The lone African-American in the room full of steelworkers, she works as a secretary in the steel mill and is the head of the clerical workers union.
"It's a race thing," she says of her colleagues' support for Sen. Clinton. "They can't handle it, an African-American being over them." As an African-American union official, Ms. Ingramn says she has battled constantly to be included in meetings and decisions.
Both Sen. Clinton's and Sen. Obama's campaigns say race and gender shouldn't be a consideration, and that they are targeting blue-collar voters with appeals to economic issues that hit working-class families.
"Some may call this the 'rust belt,' but that's not what I see," Sen. Clinton said in a visit to the General Motors plant here last week. "I see some of the hardest workers in the world. I see great universities and strong communities. I see a 21st-century manufacturing belt. An innovation belt. An opportunity belt."
Sen. Obama, in a visit to a GM plant in Wisconsin, similarly laid out plans to help workers and create jobs. "I won't stand here and tell you that we can -- or should -- stop free trade. We can't stop every job from going overseas," he said. "But I also won't stand here and accept an America where we do nothing to help American workers who have lost jobs and opportunities because of these trade agreements."
The real test will come in November.
"I think if we nominate one of these two, we are talking about McCain as president," says Bob Rodkey, a firefighter who doesn't like either candidate but plans to vote for Sen. Clinton in the primary. "I talk to a lot of my Democratic friends and they are going to cross over in November or not vote at all. We don't have a viable candidate. Neither of them is one of us."
Mr. Rodkey says he will vote for a Democrat in the fall. He plans to urge his friends to do the same. "Hopefully they will listen to the message, and not who's delivering it," he says.