[lbo-talk] AAPOR on New Hampshire Polls

[Max B. Sawicky]

Forgive me if this has already been brought up, but in NH and other elections involving black candidates, the % estimate for the African-American was actually pretty accurate.  What was off was the share projected for the opponent, so if there is racist self-consciousness in responses to pollsters, it is taking the form of people being reluctant to admit they are voting for the white candidate, not pretending to support the black.  This is more dubious to me.  (Otherwise you have people lying about favoring the black being offset by those lying to the contrary.)


>
>For the sake of argument, let's assume that racism is
>widely spread among likely Dem voters.  Racist views,
>however, are not socially desirable, and people who
>hold such views may want to hide them.  One way of
>doing so is to tell the pollster that they are going
>to vote for a black candidate, even though they may
>not actually do so.  That may explain the discrepancy
>in question.
>
>Wojtek
>
>
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