Don't get me wrong; I don't want a long hard fall. It's just hard to see how we'll avoid it. Especially given the folks who are running the show. They gave us Katrina relief; now they're going to fix the economy.
Joanna
-------------- Original message ----------------------
From: Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com>
> A lot of Wall Street types are forecasting the worst recession since
> the 1930s. My first reaction to this was: worse than 1974-75, or
> 1981-82? Those were really nasty - GDP down around 3%, unemployment
> up to 9-10%. We haven't seen anything like that in decades, though we
> might this time. And there's nothing (yet) in the leading indexes to
> suggest that's in the offing. I asked a pal of mine who's one of Wall
> Street's leading business cycle forecasters if there's anything to
> this prediction - he agreed with me that there's nothing in the
> leading indicators yet to suggest anything like that, and he
> concurred that the gloom may be in large part the result of the fact
> that Wall Street has been hit so hard in recent months, which might
> be skewing their perspective.
>
> If the leading indicators decline more - the Conference Board's is
> now off around 1% for the year ending in December, compared with
> 8-10% declines before the mid-70s and early-80s recessions - I'll
> change my tune. But we're not there yet.
>
> Doug
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