[lbo-talk] recession severity

Julio Huato juliohuato at gmail.com
Fri Jan 25 02:58:35 PST 2008


Doug wrote:


> A lot of Wall Street types are forecasting
> the worst recession since the 1930s.

It may be a tacit agreement on the Street to keep Bernanke under pressure. They will keep assuming and discounting ever larger rate cuts to keep the pressure up, until Bernanke resists. As he does, they'll ridicule him as "weak." The more he pleases them, the more they'll disrespect him.

This policy creates a very strong incentive for the BRICs to "decouple." Every time the U.S. lowers the rates a bit, one can hear China's trade policy moan.

Soros is right about the limits of monetary policy. It's the yield curve, stupid! Expecting inflation and trying to keep the USD from unraveling, longer-maturity yields will go up further. A steep yield curve is good for the banks, but makes monetary policy pointless. Ultimately the limits of monetary policy are political -- the patience with which people endure pain. Not only domestically political, but international political.



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