On Jan 28, 2008, at 2:52 PM, Shane Mage wrote:
> They seem to discount completely the possibility of a multiple-ballot
> convention, and therefore give a virtually zero probability that
> anyone
> but Clinton or Obama would be nominated--even though the most
> "electable" possibilities are Gore and Edwards. Is this realistic--or
> just freakonomics?
Who knows? Intrade doesn't have much of a record. The Iowa Electronic Market
<http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/>,
which does have a record (see paper on front page of site), has proven generally more accurate than polls (god knows why), and it shows a mild bounce for BHO, but nothing like he saw after his victory in Iowa.
Doug