[lbo-talk] 90% of blacks voted

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Thu Jul 3 21:21:03 PDT 2008


On Fri, 4 Jul 2008, shag wrote:


> so, why is 90% support for obama supposed to be impressive again?

Because it happened in the Dem primary -- normally the black vote is split more there. It's in the November Dem/Rep election that black support is always 90+ Democratic since 1964.

And you're right, it would be 90+% Dem this time no matter who won. The supposed point is that this higher than normal percentage support in the primary will be the harbinger, if properly worked, to a substantially larger black turnout in the main election (and thus the possibility of winning a couple of southern states where blacks make up a a quarter or a third of the electorate).

Which of course remains to be seen and probably nobody should bet on without getting odds. I'm not supporting this theory, just describing it.

Michael



More information about the lbo-talk mailing list