On Fri, 4 Jul 2008, shag wrote:
> so, why is 90% support for obama supposed to be impressive again?
Because it happened in the Dem primary -- normally the black vote is split more there. It's in the November Dem/Rep election that black support is always 90+ Democratic since 1964.
And you're right, it would be 90+% Dem this time no matter who won. The supposed point is that this higher than normal percentage support in the primary will be the harbinger, if properly worked, to a substantially larger black turnout in the main election (and thus the possibility of winning a couple of southern states where blacks make up a a quarter or a third of the electorate).
Which of course remains to be seen and probably nobody should bet on without getting odds. I'm not supporting this theory, just describing it.
Michael