Yuval Diskin, the head of the Shin Bet on the cease-fire in Gaza:
> More than a month after the declaration of the cease-fire in the Gaza
> Strip, Diskin admits that the tahadiyeh is stable. All those involved
> have an interest in its continuing, he says, and Hamas' influence on
> the other factions in the Strip is very great. Hamas sought the lull
> mainly because it was under pressure on account of the distress of the
> Palestinian public...As an ideological and social movement, Hamas is
> considered to be in critical need of public support. It is also
> interested now in consolidating its power base in the Strip and in
> increasing its military strength. It has no interest in an immediate
> military confrontation with Israel at this point....In agreeing to the
> cease-fire, Diskin believes, Israel extended a lifeline to Hamas. "We
> are not attacking them and we have lifted the blockade, while they
> have not taken upon themselves a commitment to stop their arms
> buildup. From the point of view of Hamas, it is the winner in the
> conflict, as the side that managed to hold its ground during the
> Israeli blockade. The lull in fighting is depicted as an impressive
> achievement for it." For its part, Israel is getting a temporary calm
> but, he says, "this is in fact an illusion. In our assessment, the
> rocket firing will start again at some point in the future."
I think bets can be placed now. Mine goes like this. At some point in the next 4 months, a political decision will be made by the Israeli cabinet (which may or may not get leaked to the press) to end the cease-fire. It will go along these general lines: The IDF will quietly and inconspicuously target, let's say, one of the small, especially militant factions that grudgingly signed up to the cease-fire. If there's no response, they'll target it again. The faction will eventually respond with some sort of relatively minor attack.
The Israelis will feign shock and horror and launch a major "crackdown," targeting Hamas rather than the smaller group -- a really good pummeling. The Hamasniks will start squabbling among themselves behind the scenes about whether to consider the cease-fire over. The debate will be resolved for them by some relatively large-scale attack carried out by people who may or may not have had a go-ahead from elements of the Hamas leadership. Hamas leaders will publicly praise the attack. The New York Times will report it as "Hamas End the Cease-Fire."
Seth