[lbo-talk] the cease-fire

[Dennis Perrin]

Seth:
> I think bets can be placed now. Mine goes like this. At some point in the 
> next 4 months, a political decision will be made by the Israeli cabinet 
> (which may or may not get leaked to the press) to end the cease-fire. It 
> will go along these general lines: The IDF will quietly and 
> inconspicuously target, let's say, one of the small, especially militant 
> factions that grudgingly signed up to the cease-fire. If there's no 
> response, they'll target it again. The faction will eventually respond 
> with some sort of relatively minor attack.

In other words, what Israel did during the Habib ceasefire of '81, leading 
to the invasion of Lebanon the following year. Hey, why fuck with a winning 
formula?

Dennis