[lbo-talk] Brit politix

[Lenin's Tomb]

I'll have a bash at this.  Labour remains a party with an overwhelmingly
working class base, but the meltdown in its vote has led to most C2DE voters
(not equivalent to working class admittedly) intending to either vote Tory
(42%), Lib Dem (16%) or the mysterious 'Other' (16%).*  Past breakdowns
tended to show 'Other' including 'centre-left' nationalist parties such as
the SNP and Plaid Cymru, the far right, UKIP, the Greens and - until a year
ago - Respect.  (The left-vote as a whole is going to contract dramatically
in the next election, short of a major social upheaval over pay and related
issues.)

Cameron's conservatives are redefining their agenda to sound vaguely to the
left of Labour, on NHS cuts, civil liberties, Post Office closures, etc.  In
this way, they are shedding the aura of nastiness that alienated 'nice'
centre-right voters and drove them to vote Liberal.  So, they'll get back
the lost middle class vote.  Meanwhile, the Tories' position on the euro may
not suit most of big business, but on the whole there is enough antipathy to
the euro from sectors of big capital, small businesses, and the population
at large, that it doesn't matter.  The aggressive defense of British capital
from modest social democratic constraints promulgated by the EU, as well as
the aggressive and undemocratic promotion of aspects of EU legislation they
do like, is something they can expect from both parties.  What business
likes about the Tories today is that they can win the next election and
enforce their programme even more aggressively and less defensively than New
Labour.

* http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/tables%2008%2007%2011%20stfull.pdf

On Sat, Jul 26, 2008 at 3:47 PM, Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> wrote:


> So could someone explain the current configuration of British politics to
> me? What's the social base of the Tories vs. Labour (both popular and
> elite)? Where do the City's sympathies lie? The City can't like Cameron's
> euro-skepticism, can it? But it looks like Labour's washed up. Is that old
> alliance of the City and the rural gentry to support the Conservatives
> coming back to life?
>
> Doug___________________________________
> http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/mailman/listinfo/lbo-talk
>