On May 7, 2008, at 7:48 AM, Julio Huato wrote:
> He can speak for himself, but it seems to me that Max's point is that
> the fluctuations in the polls are largely noise. The main trend is
> clear.
There has been no such trend in the national polls. It's been very close for months. In fact, Obama's lead in Gallup's latest tracking poll is smaller than it was three weeks ago.
<http://www.gallup.com/poll/107038/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-Clinton-46- Democratic-Nomination.aspx>
The Real Clear Politics average of the national polls shows BHO ahead by 0.2 point.
Julio, you're an economist. How can you say something like this about the trend in the polls when there's no actual statistical evidence for it?
> A better (also fluctuating, but much more stable than the
> polls) indication of what people expect come November is the Iowa
> electronic markets or Intrade.
That's what "people" - specifically people who trade election contracts - think, yes. And the electronic markets have a very good record, though no one quite understands why. But that's not a measure of public opinion.