Hillary is Max Cady in Cape Fear, chained to a sinking ship and babbling in tongues.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Doug Henwood
> Sent: 08:04 am
> To: lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org
> Subject: Re: [lbo-talk] Max's randomness persists
>
>
> On May 7, 2008, at 7:48 AM, Julio Huato wrote:
>
> > He can speak for himself, but it seems to me that Max's point is that
> > the fluctuations in the polls are largely noise. The main trend is
> > clear.
>
> There has been no such trend in the national polls. It's been very
> close for months. In fact, Obama's lead in Gallup's latest tracking
> poll is smaller than it was three weeks ago.
>
> <http://www.gallup.com/poll/107038/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-Clinton-46-
> Democratic-Nomination.aspx>
>
> The Real Clear Politics average of the national polls shows BHO ahead
> by 0.2 point.
>
> Julio, you're an economist. How can you say something like this about
> the trend in the polls when there's no actual statistical evidence
> for it?
>
> > A better (also fluctuating, but much more stable than the
> > polls) indication of what people expect come November is the Iowa
> > electronic markets or Intrade.
>
> That's what "people" - specifically people who trade election
> contracts - think, yes. And the electronic markets have a very good
> record, though no one quite understands why. But that's not a measure
> of public opinion.
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