On May 7, 2008, at 1:09 AM, Jim Straub wrote:
> So I said to you yeah, I
> don't think he's so amazing as some of his fans think, but I do think
> he's measurably more progressive than Clinton,
By what metric? Not their voting record. The NYT had a side-by-side comparison of economic proposals the other day and they were indistinguishable except for the foreclosure moratorium. Their policies on Iraq are virtually identical. Hillary's Iran rhetoric is more bellicose, but what do you think Pres Obama would do differently from Pres Clinton if Iran lobbed a few nukes at Israel?
> has a better shot in
> the general election against McCain,
Again, by what metric? Current polls do not agree. The latest RCP average is:
<http://www.realclearpolitics.com/>
vs. McCain
Obama +2.4
Clinton +3.5
You could make demographic arguments either way. Obama has attracted a new set of voters, mainly young ones, but they're not always reliable come November. That's a plus for him, say. But his primary victories have extremely dependent on states in which the Dem electorate was over 30% black, which isn't a national model. He did better among whites in Indiana than Pennsylvania, but he did better in California than both. Hillary's probably better positioned to win the Reagan Democrats, or at least today's equivalent. The reasons for that aren't pretty, but they're real. So there's no clear edge to either if you play this game.
> think the enthusiasm he's
> mobilized in the black and young adult communities is a good thing,
Sure, if you're an activismist. Enthusiasm for what exactly? Anything beyond voting? We heard similar things about Jesse Jackson, and look where that went.
> and have more trust for a former community organizer than for someone
> connected to the administration that brought us nafta welfare reform
> and the iraq sanctions.
His community organizing record is mostly a cipher. And when Hillary was young, she was a public interest lawyer who defended Commies and Panthers, right? When she grew up, she defended Wal-Mart. When he grew up, Paul Tudor Jones threw him a fundraiser. When David Horowitz was young, he edited Ramparts, too. People do a lot of funny things when they're young.
Doug
>