[lbo-talk] Patterns

Julio Huato juliohuato at gmail.com
Wed Nov 5 09:18:01 PST 2008


Doug wrote:


> "But there was no massive turnout among
> young voters. According to the exit polls,
> 18% of the voters this time were under 30,
> as compared to 17% of voters in 2004.
> (By comparison, 22% of voting-age
> Americans are under 30.)"

Yes, this is right. But it does not conflict with the notion that Obama inspired the political participation of an unusually large number of young people. That's because, although the total of youth participation (as a percentage of the voting population) remained roughly constant, the share of them who supported Obama (as opposed to McCain) jumped. In that sense, Obama was a phenomenon among young people. (See Gelman's graph 3.)



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