i don't think it means squat, because i don't see as the right predictions mean much at this point. what she's really talking about is something that a lot of people have also talked about -- the ways that he has left himself very open to people feeling that he is for what they want. butler is not the only one to do this. and i suspect she (like i, but i have not discussed it with her or anything) would agree that this was a successful aspect of his strategy.
but it leaves the problem that lots of different constituencies with some disagreements are pinning hopes on him. this is where i worry that his cabinet picks reflect learning a certain kind of lesson from clinton's first six or eight months.
how will this play out? dunno. he has tacked well so far, and maybe he knows what he's doing here, too. i think butler's point really is that there are a few things he could conceivably do that would address the kinds of things that most if not all of the people who voted for him would agree on. so that if he can avoid a fight over gays in the military (speaking proverbially here, remembering clinton) and instead move a few items that will make many many people feel good about him as their choice, then he will get himself all kinds of, i don't know, "legislative capital" or something like that? to spend down the road. he'll have more room to maneuver.
i think, anyway. but what do i know. i've never been elected president, as far as that goes.
On Wed, Nov 12, 2008 at 5:32 PM, Charles Brown < charlesb at cncl.ci.detroit.mi.us> wrote:
>
>
> >>> Dennis Claxton
>
> >CB: Does Butler have Reverse Schadenfreude ?
>
>
> A friend I sent this to asked a similar question. I asked him, and
> now I'm asking you, did you miss this part?
>
>
> >Very few of us are immune to the exhilaration of this time. My
> >friends on the left write to me that they feel something akin to
> >"redemption" or that "the country has been returned to us" or that
> >"we finally have one of us in the White House." Of course, like
> >them, I discover myself feeling overwhelmed with disbelief and
> >excitement throughout the day, since the thought of having the
> >regime of George W. Bush over and gone is an enormous relief. And
> >the thought of Obama, a thoughtful and progressive black candidate,
> >shifts the historical ground, and we feel that cataclysm as it
> >produces a new terrain.
>
> ^^^^
> CB: No , and I didn't miss the part where she attributes contradictory
> emotions or attitudes to others :
>
> "I know that Obama is a Muslim and a Terrorist, but I will vote for him
> anyway; he is probably better for the economy." Such voters got to keep
> their racism and vote for Obama, sheltering their split beliefs without
> having to resolve them. "
>
> ^^
> So, applying her concept of "split beliefs" to her , we might surmise
> that she is both relieved and anxious about Obama's win. For example ,
> this passage:
>
> "If a consequential and dramatic disappointment is to be averted, he
> will have to act quickly and well. Perhaps the only way to avert a
> "crash" – a disappointment of serious proportions that would turn
> political will against him – will be to take decisive actions within
> the first two months of his presidency. "
>
> She's so worried. If he doesn't quickly do what she says he should do,
> he will "crash". Maybe, maybe not, but she's not the one I would look
> to for predictions, 'cause as far as I know she didn't predict his
> winning or the enthusiastic response he got in the campaign. She should
> probably be more in a listening mode, and less in one of making
> pronouncements.
>
> Of course , it's not just Butler. Reverse Schadenfreude on Obama is
> rife in certain parts of the left today.
>
>
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