On Oct 21, 2008, at 7:17 AM, Michael Pollak wrote:
> Mining electoral
> data from the General Social Survey, they found that the decline in
> white working-class support for Democrats occurred in one period--
> from
> the mid-seventies until the early nineties, with a brief lull in the
> early eighties--and has remained well below fifty per cent ever
> since.
<http://www.princeton.edu/~bartels/kansas.pdf>
What’s the Matter with What’s the Matter with Kansas?
Larry M. Bartels
Department of Politics and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
• Has the white working class abandoned the Democratic Party? No. White voters in the bottom third of the income distribution have actually become more reliably Democratic in presidential elections over the past half-century, while middle- and upper-income white voters have trended Republican. Low-income whites have become less Democratic in their partisan identifications, but at a slower rate than more affluent whites – and that trend is entirely confined to the South, where Democratic identification was artificially inflated by the one-party system of the Jim Crow era.
• Has the white working class become more conservative? No. The average views of low- income whites have remained virtually unchanged over the past 30 years. (A pro-choice shift on abortion in the 1970s and ‘80s has been partially reversed since the early 1990s.) Their positions relative to more affluent white voters – generally less liberal on social issues and less conservative on economic issues – have also remained virtually unchanged.
• Do working class “moral values” trump economics? No. Social issues (including abortion) are less strongly related to party identification and presidential votes than economic issues are, and that is even more true for whites in the bottom third of the income distribution than for more affluent whites. Moreover, while social issue preferences have become more strongly related to presidential votes among middle- and high-income whites, there is no evidence of a corresponding trend among low-income whites.
• Are religious voters distracted from economic issues? No. The partisan attachments and presidential votes of frequent church-goers and people who say religion provides “a great deal” of guidance in their lives are much more strongly related to their views about economic issues than to their views about social issues. For church-goers as for non- church-goers, partisanship and voting behavior are primarily shaped by economic issues, not cultural issues.