Political chemistry test facing America. History will determine : acid or base ?
CB
Tuesday, September 23, 2008 Laura Berman America faces racial litmus test on Nov. 4
Michigan's top pollsters use the example of Proposition 2 -- the 2006 anti-affirmative action ballot proposal -- to explain why they don't trust their own numbers on the presidential candidacy of Barack Obama.
Tim Kiska, a University of Michigan-Dearborn professor and author, is a proficient exit-pollster who was confounded by his own results in that election two years ago. Although he successfully called the election that night for Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Sen. Debbie Stabenow, his data indicated a dead heat on the affirmative action proposal. Ultimately, the margin of victory was more canyon than crevice, when affirmative action was banned by a 58 percent-to-42 percent vote.
Kiska, and other pollsters, including Steve Mitchell, have used that vote as an example of how the best polling numbers are less reliable when white voters are polled about a black candidate.
Lurking racism -- or uneasiness, or something -- compels voters to inaccurately report their votes: They say what they think they should say they did, instead of what they actually did.
Are they lying? "It's the same precincts in the same exit polls with the same people," says Kiska, who was off by eight points on the ballot proposal that involved race.
The upcoming election isn't just a contest between two national political candidates. It will also be viewed by history as a referendum on American attitudes, as voters have the chance to vote for an African-American president: How racist are we?
No Democratic presidential candidate has won a majority of the white vote since 1964, and -- yes -- there is historical evidence that voters are more likely to say they'll vote for black candidates than to actually vote for them.
What's fascinating to me is how often I hear strong supporters of Barack Obama -- button-wearing, sign-displaying types, white and black -- muttering their concerns about racism deciding the election. These aren't people who will secretly vote for John McCain: They're just convinced their Democratic friends and neighbors will.
The idea that an African-American can't be elected president has its own tug.
Vincent Hutchings, an expert on race and politics at the University of Michigan, makes a distinction between racism -- overt racial hatred -- and a resistance to racial change, what he calls "racial conservatism."
Using this distinction, Michigan's Prop 2, crafted to undo affirmative action, was a behind-the-curtain certainty with white voters.
Whether Americans are "too racist" to vote for Barack Obama is difficult to know. But the past suggests that all social barriers -- from voting rights to a female governor -- appear frustrating and impenetrable until people decide they aren't.
You can reach Laura Berman at lberman at detnews.com.
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