On Feb 6, 2009, at 5:36 PM, SA wrote:
> I wrote:
>
>> At its lowest point since WWII, the overall employment rate hit
>> 57.1% (March 1983). At the pace of decline of the past six months,
>> we'll reach that point next January. (Despite a female
>> participation rate that's 6.7 points higher now.)
>
> Oops. Strike the first six words.
The decline of the employment/pop ratio is remarkable. In percentage terms, the 0.5 point drop is the second-worst since 1950, and we're back to 1986 levels. It's almost certain to fall further, and probably significantly further. Though the pace of job loss in this recession isn't unusual, what is unusual is that an average recession would be stabilizing or even reversing by now, a year or so into it. It's not at all.
Doug