On Feb 12, 2009, at 12:24 PM, SA wrote:
> So the central estimate is that the bill will increase employment by
> 1.6 million by the end of 2009. That's 1% of the labor force. It is
> not a bad bet, then, that unemployment will reach double digits
> despite the stimulus. If it does, how the hell will Obama &co.
> prevent the whole idea of stimulus from being discredited politically?
They present estimates for the unemployment rate which don't hit double digits. E.g.:
2009 2010
do nothing 9.0% 8.7 low est of plan 8.5 8.1 high est of plan 7.7 6.8 [midpoint 8.1 7.5]
If unemployment really does top out below 9% and then start falling, the politics might work out. Political perceptions are based on recent changes. If they can blame the Reps for obstructionism, it might help.
Doug