> How long before the actual rise of such an organized
> challenge is such a challenge predictable?
If it is predictable, I don't know the art. And as Doug used to say, never predict anything, especially the future.
At best, we can identify obstacles and work to clear them.
> How would you define, even vaguely, what an _organized_
> challenge was?
Vaguely, a means of collective action for shared ends. A means to make specific demands and to raise the costs to the governing class for ignoring or betraying such demands.
Something more than a one-off eruption of public anger that vanishes from memory in a dozen news cycles. There will be always mirages on the screen due to the voracious demand for content by cable news.
Something more than abstract angst. If you demand an abstraction, you'll receive an abstraction.
Shane